【BIMCO市场分析】报告称美印贸易协议可能使俄罗斯石油出口减少 25%

Reported US-India trade agreement could cut Russian oil exports by 25%

In 2025, India’s oil imports from Russia made up 33% of the country’s total seaborne oil imports and 25% of Russia’s seaborne oil exports. A new trade agreement between the US and India could, according to US President Donald Trump, put an end to that trade.

2025 年，印度从俄罗斯进口的石油占该国海运石油进口总量的 33%，同时占俄罗斯海运石油出口的 25%。根据美国总统特朗普的说法，美国和印度之间的一项新贸易协议可能结束两国之间的这部分贸易。

On Monday, President Trump announced that a new trade agreement between the US and India would lead to mutual tariff reductions. US tariffs on Indian goods would fall from 50% to 18% and Indian tariffs on US goods could fall to zero. However, India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, has yet to publicly confirm the Indian tariff reduction.

周一，总统特朗普宣布一项新的美印贸易协议，将导致双方进行互惠关税减免。美国对印度商品的关税将从 50% 降至 18%，而印度对美国商品的关税可能降为零。然而，印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪尚未公开确认，印度是否将实施相关关税下调措施。

In addition, President Trump announced that the deal included Indian commitments to end oil purchases from Russia while significantly increasing purchases of US energy and goods. India has yet to confirm this part of the agreement.

此外，特朗普总统表示，该协议包括印度承诺停止从俄罗斯购买石油，同时大幅增加从美国采购能源和其他商品。印度方面尚未就此部分作出确认。

During the first five weeks of 2026, Russian oil exports to India have already fallen 34% year-on-year. The reduction could be due to the EU restrictions on purchase, import and transfer of oil products refined from Russian crude oil.

2026 年前五周，俄罗斯对印度的石油出口量已同比下降 34%。这一减少可能归因于欧盟对俄罗斯原油炼制的成品油在采购、进口及转运环节实施的相关限制。

While it is too early to conclude that the Russia-India oil trade will stop, the combination of EU restrictions and a US-India agreement could reduce the trade significantly.

尽管目前还为时尚早，尚不能断定俄印石油贸易将完全停止，但欧盟限制措施与美印贸易协议的叠加效应，可能会显著压缩双方的石油贸易规模。

Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, up to two thirds of India’s crude oil and oil product imports arrived from the Persian Gulf. In 2025, that had reduced to 45%. It appears likely that Indian importers could turn to imports from the Persian Gulf to replace any potential reductions in imports from Russia. President Trump has said India will be increasing its oil purchases from the US and possibly Venezuela.

在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之前，印度高达三分之二的原油及成品油进口来自波斯湾。而到 2025 年，这一比例已下降至 45%。看起来，印度进口商很可能会转而增加来自波斯湾地区的进口，以弥补未来可能出现的俄罗斯石油进口减少。特朗普总统表示，印度还将增加从美国，以及可能从委内瑞拉采购石油。

In 2025, the Russia-India trade made up 0.5% and 4.7% of tonne miles in the clean and dirty tanker trades respectively. A reduction or an end to Russia-India volumes could have significant impact on especially the dirty tanker trade, not least as the mainstream fleet could see significant demand increase at the expense of the parallel fleet.

2025 年，俄罗斯—印度石油贸易分别占成品油油轮和原油油轮运输吨英里需求的 0.5% 和 4.7%。如果俄罗斯—印度贸易量减少或终止，尤其将对原油油轮市场产生显著影响，其中一个重要变化是，主流船队的运输需求可能明显增加，而平行船队的市场空间将被压缩。

While Trump in October last year said India had committed to significantly reduce its Russian oil purchases, we find this much more likely to happen now. We do not expect, however, that Russian oil exports will fall by the same amount as Russia will likely aim to find new buyers, even if it requires a higher rebate for Russian oil.

尽管特朗普在去年 10 月曾表示印度已承诺大幅减少其俄罗斯石油采购，但我们认为这一情况现在更有可能会发生。然而，我们并不认为俄罗斯石油出口总量会出现同等幅度的下降，因为俄罗斯很可能会努力寻找新的买家，即便这意味着需要以更大的价格折扣出售俄罗斯石油。