As US special forces carried out an audacious, night-time raid to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro Friday night, President Donald Trump watched the action unfold from his estate at Mar-a-Lago. Among those at his side was Marco Rubio, his powerful secretary of state and national security advisor.周五夜间，美国特种部队展开了一次大胆的夜袭行动以抓捕委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗。总统唐纳德·特朗普在位于海湖庄园的私人住所中观看了行动的全过程。陪同在他身边的，还有权力显赫的国务卿兼国家安全顾问马尔科·卢比奥。
It was a moment years in the making for Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants whose political career originated in south Florida, home to thousands of Venezuelan immigrants who fled Maduro’s regime.这一刻对卢比奥而言酝酿多年。作为古巴移民之子，他的政治生涯起步于佛罗里达州南部——那里聚居着成千上万逃离马杜罗政权的委内瑞拉移民。
Rubio has long had his sights on Maduro, sources say, and he was a driving force of the strategy that set the stage for the dramatic scenes that played out in the de-facto Situation Room in Florida that night.消息人士称，卢比奥长期将马杜罗视为目标，并且是制定相关战略的关键推动者，为当晚在佛罗里达“事实上的战情室”中上演的戏剧性场面奠定了基础。
Hours later, Trump announced he was tasking Rubio to help “run” Venezuela along with other key officials in the room — a vague pronouncement that raised more questions than it answered, but also underscored Rubio’s indispensable role.数小时后，特朗普宣布将指派卢比奥与在场的其他关键官员一道协助“管理”委内瑞拉。这一表述含糊其辞，引发的问题多于答案，但同时也凸显了卢比奥不可或缺的角色。
His latest task leading the administration’s nation-building efforts cements his outsized influence over policy and marks an extraordinary rise for the top US diplomat. For a man who already has more than one job in Washington, this may be his riskiest one yet.他最新被赋予的领导政府“国家重建”工作的任务，进一步巩固了他在政策制定中的巨大影响力，也标志着这位美国最高外交官非同寻常的崛起。对于一个已经身兼数职的人来说，这或许是他迄今为止风险最大的一项任务。
“There’s a lot about Venezuela that is not easily governed,” said a former senior US diplomat who spoke to CNN on condition of anonymity. “Trying to impose order on a place that’s larger than Iraq, it’s not an easy thing.”一名前美国高级外交官在匿名接受 CNN 采访时表示：“委内瑞拉有很多方面并不容易治理。试图在一个比伊拉克还大的国家强行建立秩序，并非易事。”
“My argument is: go in and get out,” the person added.这名人士补充说：“我的观点是：进去，然后尽快撤出。”
Among former diplomats and experts on the region, there are deep questions about US plans for a post-Maduro Venezuela, how they will be executed, and how long the officials formerly aligned with Maduro will remain in power.在前外交官和地区问题专家中，关于美国在“后马杜罗时代”的委内瑞拉计划、这些计划将如何执行，以及此前与马杜罗结盟的官员还能掌权多久，都存在严重疑问。
Coming up with answers to those questions will largely fall to Rubio and his team.寻找这些问题的答案，在很大程度上将落在卢比奥及其团队身上。
“My hope is that (the administration) really have planned this out, and there’s going to be a scheduled tick-tock of how this is going to go,” said Todd Robinson, the former acting US ambassador to Venezuela during Trump’s first term. “But that has not been, I don’t think, anybody’s history with this administration.”曾在特朗普第一任期担任美国驻委内瑞拉代理大使的托德·罗宾逊表示：“我希望（政府）真的已经做了周密规划，并且有一个清晰的时间表，明确接下来会如何推进。但我认为，这并不是这个政府一贯的行事风格。”
A former senior US official said that there was “an enormous amount of planning that was done” during the first Trump term related to a democratic transition in Venezuela. It is not clear if the administration will turn to those plans. And this official noted that with the remnants of the Maduro regime still in place, it would be “premature” to do so.一名前美国高级官员表示，在特朗普第一任期内，围绕委内瑞拉民主过渡曾进行过“大量规划”。目前尚不清楚政府是否会启用这些方案。该官员还指出，在马杜罗政权残余势力仍然存在的情况下，现在就采取这些计划“为时尚早”。
二、 白宫长达数月的筹划，卢比奥与白宫办公厅副主任斯蒂芬·米勒制定委内瑞拉行动战略
Rubio spent the months leading up to Saturday’s operation huddled at the White House with Trump’s Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller to craft the strategy, sources told CNN.消息人士告诉 CNN，在周六行动之前的几个月里，卢比奥一直与特朗普的副幕僚长斯蒂芬·米勒在白宫密切磋商，制定相关战略。
Throughout, Rubio was rarely far from Trump. Rubio spends most of his time in Washington at the White House, which he uses as his base of operations. His time at the State Department is typically only for bilateral meetings. He has spent many weekends in Florida, alongside Trump. Rubio has eschewed trips abroad and dispatched his deputy instead.在整个过程中，卢比奥几乎一直陪在特朗普身边。他大部分时间都在白宫办公，将其作为行动基地；前往国务院通常仅限于双边会谈。他还多次在周末前往佛罗里达陪同特朗普。卢比奥回避出访海外，而是派遣副手代行其职。
As with many of the administration’s foreign policy priorities, the discussions about how to “run” Venezuela are being held by a small circle of trusted political advisors like Rubio and Miller. Richard Grenell, who initially had involvement in the portfolio in his capacity as diplomatic envoy for special missions, has not been a part of the policy development for months, US officials said. Nor have many high-ranking State Department officials.与政府的许多外交政策重点一样，关于如何“管理”委内瑞拉的讨论由卢比奥和米勒等一小撮值得信任的政治顾问主导。美国官员称，最初以特使身份参与相关事务的理查德·格雷内尔，数月来已未参与政策制定，许多国务院高层官员同样被排除在外。
As the administration prepared for a post-Maduro Venezuela, the day-after planning largely took place in Miller’s office at the White House, sources told CNN. It is an unlikely hub for this kind of planning — given Miller’s domestic-focused purview — but one that was chosen because of Miller and Rubio’s close relationship and a desire to keep a small circle of policy-makers involved in an administration wary of leaks.消息人士称，在为“后马杜罗时代”的委内瑞拉做准备时，事后规划主要在米勒的白宫办公室进行。鉴于米勒主要负责国内事务，这个地点看似不太寻常，但之所以如此安排，是因为他与卢比奥关系密切，同时政府也希望将知情决策者范围控制在最小，以防泄密。
三、卢比奥与米勒一拍即合：外交政策的强硬派，逮捕马杜罗激进战略的核心人物
The months of Venezuela discussions united Rubio and Miller, both of whom share hardline stances in their approach to foreign policy, sources familiar with their relationship tell CNN. Both men, sources say, have been core to the aggressive strategy to isolate Maduro and eventually capture him.熟悉两人关系的消息人士告诉 CNN，围绕委内瑞拉的数月讨论将卢比奥与米勒紧密联系在一起。两人在外交政策上都持强硬立场，并且都是孤立马杜罗、最终将其抓捕的激进战略核心人物。
Whereas Miller and Rubio have disagreed on foreign policy positions in the past, particularly as it related to immigration, the two have found common ground in the approach they’ve taken to Venezuela, where countering drug trafficking ultimately took center stage as the policy justification for the months leading up to the Maduro capture.尽管米勒和卢比奥过去在外交政策上，尤其是在移民问题上存在分歧，但在委内瑞拉问题上，两人找到了共同立场。在抓捕马杜罗前的数月中，打击毒品贩运最终成为该政策的核心正当理由。
While Rubio’s approach to Venezuela has been focused on ramping up economic, political and ultimately military pressure on Maduro’s government, Miller had initially viewed Venezuela as a home for deportations. In the end though, Miller came around to the argument that targeting Maduro as a drug trafficker propping up a criminal cartel apparatus served the US more strongly than maintaining relationships for immigration purposes, the sources said.消息人士称，卢比奥对委内瑞拉的策略侧重于逐步加大经济、政治乃至军事压力，而米勒最初将委内瑞拉视为遣返移民的去向。但最终，米勒接受了这样的观点：将马杜罗作为支撑犯罪贩毒集团的毒枭加以打击，比出于移民目的维持关系更符合美国利益。
The two have worked closely together throughout the closed-door negotiations on how to best approach Venezuela, they said, and have moved in tandem on some of the most pressing decisions made by the White House — including in negotiations over strikes on alleged drug-smuggling boats and creating massive military presence in the region.他们表示，在关于如何应对委内瑞拉的闭门谈判中，两人始终密切合作，并在白宫作出的一些最重要决定上保持步调一致，包括就打击涉嫌运毒船只以及在该地区建立大规模军事存在的谈判。
Miller and Rubio’s hardline attitude has at time won out against other top officials in conversations with the president over how to best target the country with the largest oil reserves in the world. It helps, the sources said, that both men have the full trust of Trump, and have been incredibly and consistently persuasive in the call for escalation against Maduro.消息人士称，在与总统讨论如何针对这个拥有世界最大石油储量的国家时，米勒和卢比奥的强硬态度有时压倒了其他高级官员。这在一定程度上得益于两人完全赢得了特朗普的信任，并且在要求对马杜罗升级施压方面始终极具说服力。
But now, neither Miller or Rubio are explicitly saying who the US envisions leading the country in the long-term.但目前，米勒和卢比奥都未明确表示美国设想由谁在长期内领导委内瑞拉。
“There might be individuals who are fugitives of American justice that could become part of the future conversation,” Miller told CNN on Monday. “I would say this way for those who may be indicted, the best choice they can possibly make is to be part of a constructive decision-making process for the future of Venezuela. The best decision they can make is to cooperate fully and completely with the United States.”米勒周一对 CNN 表示：“可能会有一些美国司法体系中的逃犯，成为未来讨论的一部分。对于那些可能被起诉的人来说，他们能做出的最佳选择，就是参与到建设性的、关于委内瑞拉未来的决策过程中。最好的决定，就是与美国全面合作。”
When asked to detail his day-to-day responsibilities in running Venezuela, Miller said that Rubio is the lead on the process.当被问及谁负责“管理”委内瑞拉的日常事务时，米勒表示该流程由卢比奥主导。
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt added, “Secretary Rubio [has] done a great job advancing President Trump’s foreign policy agenda as Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, as exemplified by this latest action arresting [narcoterrorist] Nicolas Maduro. He is a team player and everyone loves working with him in the West Wing.”白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特补充说：“卢比奥部长作为国务卿和国家安全顾问，在推进特朗普总统的外交政策议程方面表现出色，最近逮捕‘毒品恐怖分子’尼古拉斯·马杜罗的行动就是明证。他是一名出色的团队成员，白宫西翼的每个人都喜欢与他共事。”
四、能力强、老练的卢比奥，是箭头人物（the tip of the spear）
Rubio now faces intense criticism from lawmakers who say he claimed that the administration was not pursuing regime change in Venezuela, or strikes inside the country. He had been the administration’s point man for discussions with Congress, taking the lead in briefings about the administration’s deadly boat strikes in the Caribbean, sources told CNN. On Monday, he briefed key lawmakers on the operation to arrest Maduro, which has faced sharp scrutiny and accusations of violating international law.目前，卢比奥正面临来自议员的强烈批评。这些议员表示，卢比奥曾声称政府并未追求委内瑞拉政权更迭，也不会在该国境内发动打击。消息人士告诉 CNN，他一直是政府与国会沟通的主要人物，主导了有关加勒比地区致命船只打击行动的简报。周一，他又向关键议员通报了抓捕马杜罗的行动，该行动遭到严厉审视，并被指控违反国际法。
“Rubio usually does the bulk of the talking,” one congressional aide said.一名国会助理表示：“通常大部分发言都是卢比奥来完成。”
While Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth often reads from a paper in front of him during briefings, Rubio speaks fluently without a script, multiple sources said.多名消息人士称，在简报会上，国防部长皮特·赫格塞思往往照稿宣读，而卢比奥则无需讲稿、表达流畅。
“[Rubio is] very good — competent, polished, and understands senators, of course — so he tends to be the lead briefer,” another congressional aide said.另一名国会助理说：“（卢比奥）非常出色——能力强、老练，而且当然懂得如何与参议员打交道——因此他往往是主要简报人。”
五、特朗普和卢比奥的策略：通过经济胁迫政策，扼住该国石油收入，以迫使现任临时总统、马杜罗亲信德尔西·罗德里格斯屈服
Trump and Rubio have started to describe in their public statements the planned framework for US influence in Venezuela — a policy of economic coercion focused on choking the country’s oil revenues to pressure Delcy Rodriguez, a Maduro acolyte now serving as interim president, to bend to their will.特朗普和卢比奥已在公开表态中开始描述美国影响委内瑞拉的既定框架——通过经济胁迫政策，扼住该国石油收入，以迫使现任临时总统、马杜罗亲信德尔西·罗德里格斯屈服。
“That’s a tremendous amount of leverage that will continue to be in place until we see changes that not just further the national interest of the United States, which is number one, but also that lead to a better future for the people of Venezuela,” Rubio said on Sunday of the oil quarantine that remains in place.卢比奥周日谈及仍在实施的石油封锁时表示：“这是一个巨大的筹码，将一直存在，直到我们看到不仅符合美国国家利益（这是第一位的），而且能为委内瑞拉人民带来更好未来的改变。”
They have said their focus remains on issues related to the US national interest: migration, drugs, oil, and ridding Venezuela of adversaries’ influence. Things like a democratic transition will have to come later.他们表示，当前重点仍是与美国国家利益相关的问题：移民、毒品、石油，以及清除对手在委内瑞拉的影响。诸如民主过渡等问题将不得不留待以后。
Still, many questions remain about the specific details of the administration’s plan. Thus far, career officials in the federal government have been largely isolated from the process, sources tell CNN.不过，政府计划的具体细节仍存在诸多疑问。消息人士告诉 CNN，迄今为止，联邦政府中的职业官员在很大程度上被排除在这一进程之外。
“There’s a very limited number of people at State and the White House who make decisions on these issues. The policy process, as it was under previous presidents, doesn’t exist,” said another former senior diplomat. “What people find out is the policy is going to be implemented, and you have a very short amount of time to do things to ensure that that policy goes forward.”另一名前高级外交官表示：“在国务院和白宫，只有极少数人在对这些问题作出决定。以往总统时期那种政策制定流程已经不存在了。人们往往是在政策即将实施时才得知，而且只有极短的时间去确保政策能够推进。”
六、卢比奥与委内瑞来临时总统罗德里格斯沟通，国务院正在“为重新开放”驻委内瑞拉使馆做准备
At this moment Rubio is the tip of the spear. He spoke to Rodriguez by phone on Saturday after the capture of Maduro had taken place, Trump said. Rubio had also had multiple other conversations with the current leader since Saturday, a White House official said. Trump told NBC that the two communicate in Spanish, with Rubio a fluent speaker.目前，卢比奥正处于最前线。特朗普表示，在马杜罗被抓捕后，卢比奥于周六与罗德里格斯通了电话。一名白宫官员称，自那以后，卢比奥还与这位现任领导人多次沟通。特朗普告诉 NBC，两人用西班牙语交流，而卢比奥能流利使用该语言。
But the idea of Rubio running day-to-day matters in Venezuela simply isn’t feasible given all the other tasks he has, the former diplomat said. “He’s going to have to delegate,” the person said.但这名前外交官指出，考虑到卢比奥肩负的众多职责，由他亲自处理委内瑞拉的日常事务并不现实。“他必须进行授权分工，”这名人士说。
The former senior US official said it would be helpful to appoint a special envoy “because of the massive amount of planning and coordination that’s going to need to be done in the interagency, if and when you get to a full transition.”这名前美国高级官员表示，任命一名特使将会很有帮助，“因为一旦进入全面过渡阶段，跨部门将需要进行大量的规划与协调”。
“I think you’re going to need a pretty sophisticated operator who has the confidence of the Secretary and the President,” they told CNN.他们对 CNN 说：“我认为需要一位相当老练、同时获得国务卿和总统信任的执行者。”
There is currently no diplomatic presence on the ground in Venezuela, although a senior State Department official said the department is “making preparations to allow for a reopening” of its embassy in Venezuela “should the President make that decision.”目前美国在委内瑞拉境内并无外交存在，不过一名国务院高级官员表示，国务院正在“为重新开放”驻委内瑞拉使馆做准备，“如果总统作出这一决定的话”。
However, without a US presence on the ground, former officials question how there can be a process to rebuild — even if it is only focused on the infrastructure for US oil companies — and who will ensure accountability.然而，在缺乏美国地面存在的情况下，前官员们质疑如何开展重建进程——即便只限于为美国石油公司服务的基础设施——以及由谁来确保问责。
“If we’re in charge, they’re going to have to start naming people — who’s in charge of what? Is it going to be military oversight? Is it going to be diplomatic oversight? It certainly can’t be development oversight, because we don’t have any more development professionals,” said Robinson, the former acting US ambassador to Venezuela, referencing the destruction of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), which was done during Rubio’s tenure.罗宾逊表示：“如果我们负责，就必须开始点名——谁负责什么？是军事监管？还是外交监管？肯定不可能是发展监管，因为我们已经没有发展领域的专业人员了。”他提及的是在卢比奥任内，美国国际开发署（USAID）遭到削弱。
七、古巴移民直指卢比奥对马杜罗的反感根深地图，对委内瑞拉感同身受
Sources who spoke to CNN said Rubio’s deep-seated antipathy for Maduro has clear roots in his personal and political upbringing in southern Florida.接受 CNN 采访的消息人士表示，卢比奥对马杜罗根深蒂固的反感，与他在佛罗里达南部的个人和政治成长背景密切相关。
“About 100% of the people in Miami that either come from Cuba or Venezuela or Nicaragua, they’re all looking for freedom. So I’m sure that that has influenced him,” Rep. Carlos Gimenez, a Florida Republican, said last month.佛罗里达州共和党众议员卡洛斯·希门尼斯上月表示：“迈阿密几乎100%来自古巴、委内瑞拉或尼加拉瓜的人，都是为了自由而来。我确信这对他产生了影响。”
Rubio “is the son of Cuban parents. And so he understands that, he feels that issue, and that issue is also felt the same by the Venezuelans that are there and the Nicaraguans that are there,” Gimenez said.希门尼斯说：“卢比奥是古巴移民的儿子，所以他理解这一点，他对这个问题感同身受，而在那里的委内瑞拉人和尼加拉瓜人也有同样的感受。”
While in the Senate, Rubio frequently denounced Maduro as a “narco-dictator” and called for increased sanctions against him. During Trump’s first term Rubio was in regular contact with Trump’s team advocating for harsher pressure on the Maduro regime, former US officials said.在参议院任职期间，卢比奥多次将马杜罗斥为“毒品毒彩者”，并呼吁对其实施更严厉的制裁。前美国官员表示，在特朗普第一任期内，卢比奥经常与特朗普团队沟通，主张加大对马杜罗政权的压力。
Still, there has been at least one notable shift in his approach to Venezuela: increasingly distancing himself from the Venezuelan opposition. As a senator, Rubio said that Edmundo Gonzalez, with the support of Maria Corina Machado, had won the 2024 Venezuelan election “in a landslide.” Rubio nominated Machado for the Nobel Peace Prize. They were among his first calls when he became secretary of state. At the time he called Gonzalez the “rightful president” of Venezuela.不过，他在委内瑞拉问题上的立场至少出现了一个显著变化：逐渐与委内瑞拉反对派保持距离。作为参议员时，卢比奥曾表示，在玛丽亚·科里纳·马查多支持下，埃德蒙多·冈萨雷斯“以压倒性优势”赢得了2024年委内瑞拉大选。卢比奥还提名马查多角逐诺贝尔和平奖。在他就任国务卿后，两人曾是他最早联系的对象之一，当时他称冈萨雷斯是委内瑞拉的“合法总统”。
But in recent weeks, Rubio would not commit to a role for them in a new Venezuelan government. Trump, meanwhile, has denounced Machado and claimed, despite evidence to the contrary, that she does not have “the support or the respect within the country.”但在最近几周，卢比奥不再承诺他们在新一届委内瑞拉政府中将扮演何种角色。与此同时，特朗普抨击马查多，并在无视相反证据的情况下声称她在国内“不具备支持或尊重”。
On Saturday, Trump praised Rubio’s dealings Rodriguez, who was sworn in as successor to Maduro on Monday.周六，特朗普称赞了卢比奥与罗德里格斯的接触。罗德里格斯于周一宣誓就任马杜罗的继任者。
“Marco is working on that directly. Just had a conversation with her, and she’s essentially willing to do what we think is necessary to make Venezuela great again,” Trump said.特朗普说：“马尔科正在直接处理这件事。刚和她谈过，她基本上愿意做我们认为有必要的事情，让委内瑞拉再次伟大。”
六、委内瑞拉翻开新的一页的机会
Rubio himself said that the US would make an assessment of Rodriguez based on what she does, not on what she says. On Saturday, Rodriguez insisted that her country had been “savagely attacked” by the operation, but by the next evening she had extended an invitation to the US government to collaborate on an “agenda of cooperation.”卢比奥本人表示，美国将根据罗德里格斯的行动，而不是言辞，对她作出评估。周六，罗德里格斯坚称该行动对委内瑞拉构成了“野蛮袭击”，但到第二天晚上，她已向美国政府发出邀请，希望在“一项合作议程”上展开合作。
Following Saturday’s operation, Rubio worked the phones with lawmakers as well as foreign counterparts. The administration did not give lawmakers or US allies advance notice of the operation, and questions have been raised about its legality. Democrats angrily put out statements about the operation being at odds with briefings they received from Rubio and other members of Trump’s national security team during which they denied any intention of regime change.周六行动后，卢比奥频繁与议员及外国对等官员通话。政府并未提前通知议员或美国盟友，因此该行动的合法性受到质疑。民主党人愤怒地发表声明称，此次行动与他们此前从卢比奥及特朗普国家安全团队成员那里获得的简报相矛盾，因为当时政府否认有政权更迭的意图。
However, among many of Rubio’s old Senate Republican colleagues, his explanation about the administration’s rationale seems to have been persuasive. Arkansas Republican Senator Tom Cotton, who spoke to Rubio following the Maduro operation, said that the administration wanted to give the Rodriguez leadership a “chance to turn the page in Venezuela.”不过，在卢比奥的许多共和党参议院旧同僚中，他对政府行动理由的解释似乎颇具说服力。阿肯色州共和党参议员汤姆·科顿在马杜罗行动后与卢比奥通话，他表示政府希望给罗德里格斯领导层一个“让委内瑞拉翻开新一页的机会”。
While Cotton added that he would not personally allow much time for the current leadership to do so, he said that those conversations are ongoing inside the Trump administration.科顿补充说，他个人不会给现任领导层太多时间，但他表示，这些讨论仍在特朗普政府内部持续进行。
