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如何看待Summit Q1财报提及的H3继续进行

   日期:2026-05-01 23:46:39     来源:网络整理    作者:本站编辑    评论:0    
如何看待Summit Q1财报提及的H3继续进行
HARMONi-3 Squamous
  • Previously, Summit announced its intention to perform an interim PFS analysis for the squamous cohort of the HARMONi-3 study in the second quarter of 2026. As previously communicated, the purpose of this interim analysis was to provide a potential opportunity to speak with the regulatory authorities, including the US Food & Drug Administration, earlier than the timing of the preplanned final PFS analysis in the second half of 2026. To achieve statistical significance, there was a meaningfully higher bar than the upcoming planned final PFS analysis based on the minimal alpha spent on the interim analysis. At this early interim PFS analysis reviewed exclusively by the Independent Data Monitoring Committee (iDMC), the iDMC recommended that the study continue as planned. No safety concerns were noted, and the study continues to be double-blinded. There is no change to the previously guided timing of the preplanned final PFS analysis in the second half of 2026.
笔者认为:对原定PFS 阳性预测可能“无伤大雅”,但可能影响最终OS的实现(这个还早),取决于究竟消耗多少α,以及本月底即将释放H6结果OS获益到底有多大?因为H3期中PFS的未达到,消耗了α,故OS阳性空间也被压缩了。
基于H6结果,SMMT对结果较为乐观,打算用小杠杆(少量a法值)PFS期中分析,撬动提前获批潜在大市场,属于药企常操,比较遗憾的是,没能提前撞线,但也不至于属于Negetive结果,最多“中性”。
1)强调本次分析消耗极小的α(公司也害怕失败,所以最大的希望仍放在H2 final PFS的读出,本次小赌怡情?),提示原计划的最终PFS α检测水平几乎不变,故极小影响H3原计划H2读出的鳞癌PFS Final 结果。
假设按照H6统计学推测H3设计,鳞癌在单侧0.025α水平下检测PFS,实现后,α全部传递给OS(检测水平也是单侧0.025),考虑本次期中分析未达到,那么将消耗了部分α(按照H6 PFS期中分析a≤0.0094,推测本次消耗0.0094,最终剩余0.0156α)just个人推测(公司衡量风险收益,拥有最终解释权)。
2)至于是否会复制H6结果?笔者认为大概率复制,甚至会更好,H6对照替雷利珠+化疗,横向对比KN407数值更好,故当对照组换成更弱的K+chemo,理论上H3的结果会更好。
套用H6 期中PFS α<0.0001结果,也是极大<0.0156α,故H3鳞癌PFS统计学阳性是大概率事件。需要注意的是,H6对照组化疗使用的是紫杉,而非数据更优的白紫,可能白紫在H3中的使用比例对于结果影响也非常重要,毕竟对照组mPFS可能接近10m(9.6m)。
笔者还是更多关注马上ASCO释放H6 OS结果,这可能是真正大考,统计学显著性是第一步,鉴于H3对于α的消耗(OS阳性空间将较H6更小),故获益差显得更重要。
  • Overall survival data from the Phase III HARMONi-6 trial, conducted in China and sponsored by Akeso, will be presented in the Plenary Session of the 2026 American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Annual Meeting. According to ASCO, Late-breaking Abstracts are released at 8:00am ET on the day of the presentation, currently scheduled for Sunday, May 31, 2026.
目前,SUMMT围绕AK112共布局4项Global Ph3:3项肺癌(联合化疗用于EGFR-TKI耐药肺癌,单药用于1L PD-L1高表达野生NSCLC,联合化疗用于1L 野生NSCLC)+1项肠癌(联合化疗用于1L CRC,取代贝伐珠)
  • HARMONi: Ivonescimab combined with chemotherapy in patients with epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-mutated, locally advanced or metastatic non-squamous NSCLC who were previously treated with a third-generation EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI)
  • HARMONi-3: Ivonescimab combined with chemotherapy in patients with first-line metastatic NSCLC, with two distinct cohorts to be analyzed separately for squamous tumors and non-squamous tumors
  • HARMONi-7: Ivonescimab monotherapy in patients with first-line metastatic NSCLC whose tumors have high PD-L1 expression
  • HARMONi-GI3: Ivonescimab combined with chemotherapy in patients with first-line unresectable metastatic CRC
最后祝大家五一快乐。
 
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