2025年第四季度中国宏观金融分析报告(中英文摘要)

2025年全球经济保持韧性但分化加剧。全球通胀普遍回落但路径分化，美国通胀受关税扰动先降后升，欧盟通胀稳定在2%目标水平，日本通胀8月后重现上行压力。货币政策呈现“美欧谨慎宽松、日本渐进加息”的分化格局，美联储下半年三次降息，欧洲央行上半年累计降息100个基点后转入观望，日本央行迈出货币政策正常化步伐。

面对风险挑战交织的复杂严峻形势，2025年我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，GDP总量跨上140万亿元的新台阶。新旧动能转换中既有阵痛也有亮点：一是物价温和回升但仍低位运行，反映供强需弱矛盾突出；二是服务消费增长快于商品零售，消费结构转型升级；三是房地产和基建投资增长放缓，但高技术产业投资保持韧性；四是直接融资占比提高，但主要来自政府债券。

展望2026年，全球经济稳定和地缘政治风险并存，中美经贸关系有望迎来阶段性缓和窗口期。进一步巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头，要求宏观经济治理加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，既要推动经济质升量增，也要为可能的转向预留政策空间。一是财政金融协同发力，有效释放内需潜力。二是以高质量城市更新为抓手，推动投资止跌回稳。三是创新宏观经济治理思路，加快修复微观主体资产负债表。

本季度专题报告聚焦日本货币政策正常化。众所周知，日本是全球保持超低利率时间最长的国家。近年来，在经历漫长的通缩陷阱后，日本央行终于启动货币政策正常化。2024年起，日本央行开始小幅加息，退出负利率，并正式结束收益率曲线控制政策（YCC）。2025年12月19日，日本央行将基准利率上调至0.75%，日本利率水平创30年来新高。

虽然走出通缩泥潭，但绝不意味着前路平坦，接下来日本当局仍需要在“控制通胀、维持财政可持续性、避免经济衰退”三者间实现艰难平衡。全球金融市场对日元加息也十分敏感，加息早期的“套息套汇交易”平仓直接引发了流动性冲击。虽然四次加息后，流动性冲击的影响已被弱化，但在全球主要经济体实行货币宽松的大背景下，日元加息是否会引发资本流动与汇率市场的连锁反应，始终是市场高度关注的问题。

In 2025, the global economy remains resilient but increasingly divergent. Headline inflation continues to recede worldwide, yet along disparate paths: US inflation, buffeted by tariff shocks, first falls then edges back up; Euro-area inflation stabilizes around the ECB's 2% target; and Japan once again faces rising price pressures from August onwards. Monetary policy similarly fragments into "cautious easing in the US and Europe, gradual tightening in Japan." The Federal Reserve delivers three rate cuts in the second half of the year; the European Central Bank trims rates by a cumulative 100 basis points in the first half before pausing; and the Bank of Japan takes further steps towards normalizing its ultra-loose stance.

Against a backdrop of intertwined risks and mounting external headwinds, China's economy continues to advance under pressure in 2025, shifting towards higher-quality, innovation-driven growth. GDP passes a new threshold of RMB 140 trillion. The ongoing rotation between old and new growth engines brings both frictions and bright spots. First, prices pick up moderately but remain low, underscoring the tension between ample supply and relatively weak demand. Second, services consumption grows faster than goods retail, pointing to an upgrading of the consumption structure. Third, while real-estate and infrastructure investment lose momentum, investment in high-tech industries proves resilient. Fourth, the share of direct financing increases, though the bulk of this rise is driven by government bond issuance.

Looking ahead to 2026, global economic stability will coexist with elevated geopolitical risks, while China-US economic and trade relations may see a window of cyclical easing. Consolidating and extending the current trend of steady improvement in China's economy will require stronger counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical macroeconomic management. Policymakers must both raise the quality and expand the quantity of growth, and at the same time preserve room for potential policy shifts. First, fiscal and financial policy should work in tandem to unlock domestic demand more effectively. Second, high-quality urban regeneration should be used as a key lever to arrest the decline in investment and stabilize it. Third, macroeconomic governance needs fresh thinking, with a focus on accelerating the repair of balance sheets across microeconomic entities.

This quarter's special report focuses on the normalization of Japan's monetary policy. Japan, as is well known, has maintained ultra-low interest rates for longer than any other major economy. In recent years, after languishing in a deflationary trap for decades, the Bank of Japan has finally embarked on a path towards normalization. Since 2024, it has inched policy rates higher, exited negative interest rates, and formally ended its yield-curve-control (YCC) program. On 19 December 2025, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 0.75%, taking Japanese interest rates to their highest level in 30 years.

Emerging from deflation does not, however, guarantee a smooth journey ahead. Japanese policymakers now face a delicate three-way trade-off: taming inflation, safeguarding fiscal sustainability, and avoiding recession. Global financial markets have proved highly sensitive to rate hikes in Japan. In the early stages of tightening, the unwinding of yen-funded carry trades triggered a bout of liquidity stress. Although the impact of these shocks has diminished after four rounds of rate increases, investors remain alert to the risk that yen rate rises—set against a backdrop of monetary easing in most major economies—could spark disruptive capital flows and a chain reaction in currency markets.