投资我们的未来
随着全球气温升高的趋势持续加剧，气候相关事件带来的社会经济成本不断上升，投资适应性和韧性变得比以往任何时候都更加紧迫。
该研究聚焦适应投资需求，并总结了气候相关事件的成本，是同类首创，填补了重要的知识空白。它采用统一方法估算欧盟及所有成员国在适应上的投资需求，重点考察2024年欧洲气候风险评估（EUCRA）中确定的风险集群及欧盟和成员国层面的个别适应措施。它基于最优质的信息来源和广泛的学术研究。
研究发现，每年需投入的700亿欧元适应中，约300亿欧元用于基础设施，210亿欧元用于生态系统，120亿欧元用于粮食安全。
法国、意大利、德国和西班牙的适应性投资需求最大，部分原因是其地理和经济规模。研究还发现，不同成员国的投资规模和类型差异显著，取决于各国的特点。
研究结果基于四步方法论，重点为：（1）基于欧盟及国家适应计划与战略识别气候风险;（2）识别适应措施并将其与EUCRA风险对应;（3）确定适应措施的短期成本数据;以及（4）将成本数据按成员国层级和特征进行调整。每一步均完整记录在详细的方法论报告中，随研究一同发布，以确保透明度和可重复性。
关键信息与建议
研究强调，当前的适应融资供应不足，投资适应带来包括气候缓解在内的共同效益。
虽然该研究在理解适应投资需求的规模和性质方面取得了重大进展，但也强调需要更完善的适应成本数据。
鉴于公共部门在实施适应措施中的主要作用，适应投资需求和气候风险也应更好地整合进国家预算规划。
最后，研究强调需要进一步工作，评估在多种气候情景下的需求、期望的韧性目标和剩余风险，并评估适应措施的成本收益比。
本研究发布之际，欧盟执委会正准备一项新的综合框架，旨在帮助成员国预防并应对日益严重的气候变化影响。
【相关阅读资料】
Investing in our future
Investing in adaptation and resilience has become more urgent than ever as the trend towards warmer global temperatures continues and the socio-economic costs of climate-related events keep rising.
The study, which focuses on adaptation investment needs and abstracts from the costs of climate-related events, is the first of its kind and fills an important knowledge gap. It uses a common methodology to estimate investment needs in adaptation for the EU and all Member States individually, looking into the risk clusters identified in the 2024 European Climate Risk AssessmentEuropean Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA) and into individual adaptation measures at the EU and Member State level. It builds on the best-available sources of information and a wide range of academic research.
The study finds that of the annual €70 billion that need to be invested in adaptation, about €30 billion are needed for infrastructure, €21 billion for ecosystems and €12 billion for food security.
France, Italy, Germany and Spain have the largest adaptation investment needs, in part due to their geographic and economic size. The study also finds that the scale and types of investments needed vary significantly across Member States, depending on individual country characteristics.
The findings are based on a four-step methodology focused on (1) identifying climate risks, building on the EUCRA and National Adaptation Plans and Strategies; (2) identifying adaptation measures and mapping them to EUCRA risks; (3) identifying cost data for a shortlist of adaptation measures; and (4) scaling costs data to Member State level and characteristics. Each step is fully documented in detailed methodology reports, published alongside the study, to ensure transparency and replicability.
Key messages and recommendations
The study stresses that the current supply of adaptation finance is insufficient and that investing in adaptation delivers co-benefits, including for climate mitigation.
While the study represents a major step forward in understanding the scale and nature of adaptation investment needs, it emphasises that better data on adaptation costs is necessary.
Adaptation investment needs and climate risks should also be better integrated in national budgetary planning, given the primary role that the public sector will play in implementing adaptation measures.
Finally, the study stresses that further work is required to assess needs under a range of climate scenarios, desired resilience targets and residual risks, and to evaluate cost-benefit ratios for adaptation measures.
This study is published as the Commission prepares a newintegrated framework for European climate resilience and risk management to help Member States prevent and get ready for the growing impacts of climate change.
