China Electronics
電子行業三季度總結
23Q3 softness in semiconductor end-market demand; auto and consumer catalysts brighten total market prospects
投資要點/Investment Thesis
投资要点/Investment Thesis
新技術新應用多方驅動，電子行業有望迎來新一輪增長。
2023年前三季度，整體行業環比維持增長，其中營收環比增長51.18%，居第十六位；歸母淨利潤環比增長41.03%，電子行業居第十六位。隨着雲計算、大數據、人工智能等新技術不斷髮展，通信代際更迭、數據流量大幅增長，汽車電子、消費電子等的蓬勃發展將有望帶動電子行業迎來市場回暖。營收方面，電子行業居第二十位，同比下降2.39%；從歸母淨利潤的增速來看，電子行業歸母淨利潤增速排全行業第二十七位，同比下降38.89%，盈利能力較去年有所下滑。
Q1-3 electronics sector trends: new tech and applications drive new growth cycle
Sequential pick-up: China’s electronics revenue rose 51.18% in 23Q1-3 vs the previous 3 quarters to place 16th among all industries; and it also placed 16th with 41.03% net profit sequential growth. We anticipate the sweet spots of automotive and consumer electronics will spur total industry recovery, as AI, big data and cloud computing advances drive up data traffic and new generations of communication devices.
Year-on-year softening: compared to last year however, China electronics’ revenue growth softened in the first three quarters with a 2.39% yoy slide to 20th place, while net profit growth dropped 38.89% yoy to 27th place among all industries.
AI驅動與終端需求發力，半導體行業國產替代邏輯強化
2023Q3半導體行業營業收入達924.45億元，歸母淨利潤達-20.69億元，同比增長-32.36%和-112.80%。2023年全球半導體市場陷入低迷，終端市場需求疲軟，但我們看好三季度後半導體行業增長態勢。地緣政治影響下，美國對中國半導體產業持續封鎖，我國政策持續推動半導體國產化，國產替代邏輯仍然爲主線；受AI驅動，存儲行情向陽，相關業務增長預期樂觀；華爲新機將有望帶動產業鏈復甦，半導體整體發展態勢向上。
Semiconductors: Q3 AI-driven and end-market demand softness; substitution
Q3 net loss: China semiconductor revenue slid 32.36% yoy to RMB92.45bn in 23Q3, with a RMB2.07bn net loss, down 112.80% yoy. This reflects soft global end-market demand in 2023, which has put the global semiconductor market in the doldrums, although we see brighter growth prospects after Q3E.
Substitution: Chinese substitution remains our core investment thesis for the semiconductor sector in tandem with the domestic policy push, which counters industry roadblocks set by the US. We are bullish about growth in AI-driven storage and related markets. We expect Huawei’s new devices will drive a supply chain recovery and spur a growth uptrend for the semiconductor market.
高端手機市場景氣度提升，消費電子行業進入順週期
2023Q3消費電子行業營業收入達4000.34億元，歸母淨利潤達50.45億元，同比增長21.43%和-72.33%。2023年Q3以來，隨着高端手機市場景氣度逐步提升，需求量攀升將有望拉動消費電子行業實現新一輪產品升級與市場回暖。品牌消費電子方面，華爲新機有望激發消費需求，且四季度爲消費旺季，各類新機密集上市，預計三季度後消費需求逐步回溫；消費電子零部件方面，Vision Pro產品逐步放量有望帶動上游產業發展，消費電子零部件及組裝行業營收有望回升，淨利潤情況持續向好。
Consumer electronics: pro-cyclical cycle with premium phone momentum
Q3 net profit slide: revenue from China’s consumer electronics industry rose 21.43% yoy to RMB400.03bn in 23Q3, but net profit fell 72.33% yoy to RMB5.05bn. Beyond Q3E, we are expecting rising demand from high-end mobile phones will lead product upgrades and spur a recovery in the consumer electronics industry.
Phones and device components
•Huawei phones: we believe Huawei’s new phones will stimulate consumer demand in the current Q4E peak season with various new phones released in high-paced launches. We anticipate consumer demand will improve gradually post-Q3E.
•Apple components: in this market, we are expecting rising volumes of Vision Pro devices to drive their upstream industries. We project component and assembly revenue will rebound and help improve industry net profit.
高端LED應用潛力廣闊，Vision Pro引領光學行業變革。1）LED：預計今年爲Mini LED起量元年，背光與直顯有望實現快速增長。索尼爲蘋果Vision Pro供應Micro OLED顯示屏，實現約4000ppi的高分辨率，形成兼具高清晰度、高對比度、廣色域及高速響應性的高畫質特色。2）面板：中國面板廠商主導LCD產業，嚴格控制稼動，產能佔比接近70%。延續控產穩價策略，最終三季度出貨量同比下降但價格上漲。面板漲價進入順週期，整體來看面板格局改善。3）Vision Pro：產品應用潛力廣闊，看好下游消費電子需求復甦，有望開拓光學成長空間賦能新的增長點。
Optics: premium LED potential; panels achieved price growth; Vision Pro catalysts
LEDs: the market is expecting a growth jump this year for mini-LED backlighting and direct displays. Sony’s micro-OLED displays for Apple’s Vision Pro headsets deliver resolution levels of about 4,000ppi, producing quality images through high definition, high contrast, wide color gamut and high-speed responsiveness.
Panels: Chinese panel makers conform to strictly controlled utilization and currently dominate the global LCD industry at nearly 70% of production capacity. Driven by a strategy of controlled production and stable prices, shipments are falling yoy in the final three quarters but prices are rising. Panel prices have entered a pro-cyclical trend and this market is improving overall.
Vision Pro: we see broad application potential for Apple’s spatial computing devices. We believe consumer electronics downstream demand will recover and expect this will expand growth headroom for the optical sector and add new growth catalysts.
風險提示：集成電路政策導向不如預期，研發不及預期；印刷電路板終端需求不及預期；被動元件行業景氣度不及預期，終端需求不及預期；分立器件終端需求不及預期，擴產速度高於預期；電子零組件/電子系統組裝/光學元件/LED/顯示器件終端需求不及預期，研發進度不及預期
Risks include: less favorable IC policy guidance and worse R&D outcomes than expected; weakening PCB end-market demand; passive components industry boom falling short of expectations on weak end-market demand; weakening discrete devices end-market demand with faster expansion than expected; and weakening end-market demand for electronic components, electronic system assembly, optical components, LED and display devices on slower R&D progress than expected.
Email: equity@tfisec.com
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