ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Q4 2025 Earnings Call January 28, 2026 9:00 AM EST
阿斯麦控股股份有限公司（ASML）2025 年第四季度财报电话会议 2026 年 1 月 28 日 上午 9:00（美国东部时间）
Company Participants
公司参会人员
Jim Kavanagh - Vice President of Investor Relations
吉姆·卡瓦纳赫——投资者关系副总裁
Christophe Fouquet - President, CEO and Chair of the Board of Management
克里斯托夫·富凯——总裁、首席执行官兼管理董事会主席
R.J.M. Dassen - Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board
R·J·M·达森——执行副总裁、首席财务官及管理董事会成员
Conference Call Participants
电话会议参会人员
Christopher Muse - Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., Research Division
克里斯托弗·缪斯——康托·菲茨杰拉德公司，研究部
Joseph Quatrochi - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division
约瑟夫·夸特罗奇——美国富国银行证券有限责任公司，研究部
Andrew Gardiner - Citigroup Inc., Research Division
安德鲁·加迪纳——花旗集团研究部
Alexander Duval - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division
亚历山大·杜瓦尔——高盛集团，研究部
Sreekrishnan Sankarnarayanan - TD Cowen, Research Division
斯里克里斯南·桑卡尔纳拉亚南——TD Cowen 公司，研究部
Mehdi Hosseini - Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division
梅赫迪·侯赛尼——Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP，研究部
Didier Scemama - BofA Securities, Research Division
迪迪埃·塞马马——美国银行证券公司，研究部
Francois-Xavier Bouvignies - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
弗朗索瓦-泽维尔·布维尼耶——瑞银投资银行，研究部
Christopher Caso - Wolfe Research, LLC
克里斯托弗·卡索——狼群研究有限责任公司
Tammy Qiu - Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG, Research Division
谭美琪——约翰·贝伦伯格、戈斯勒与公司（Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG）研究部
Presentation
演示环节
Operator
操作员
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2025 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results Conference Call on January 28, 2026. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
大家上午好，感谢您的耐心等待。欢迎参加阿斯麦公司于 2026 年 1 月 28 日召开的 2025 年第四季度及全年财务业绩电话会议。[操作员说明] 请注意，本次会议将进行录音。
I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Jim Kavanagh. Please go ahead.
现在，我将会议交由吉姆·凯瓦纳先生主持。请开始。
Jim Kavanagh
吉姆·卡瓦纳赫
Vice President of Investor Relations
投资者关系副总裁
Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone. This is Jim Kavanagh, Head of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call are ASML's CEO, Christophe Fouquet; and our CFO, Roger Dassen. The subject of today's call is ASML's 2025 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results. The length of this call will be 60 minutes, and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at www.asml.com. A transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.
谢谢主持人。欢迎大家参加本次会议。我是阿斯麦（ASML）投资者关系部负责人吉姆·卡瓦纳赫。今天出席本次电话会议的还有阿斯麦首席执行官克里斯托夫·富凯特（Christophe Fouquet）以及首席财务官罗杰·达森（Roger Dassen）。本次会议的主题是阿斯麦 2025 年第四季度及全年业绩。本次会议时长为 60 分钟，提问将按收到顺序依次进行。本次会议还将通过互联网进行实时直播，网址为 www.asml.com。管理层开场发言的文字实录及会议回放将在会议结束后尽快发布于公司官网。
Before we begin, I would like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at www.asml.com and in our ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and in other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
在会议开始之前，我谨提醒各位听众：管理层在本次电话会议中所作的陈述，均属于《联邦证券法》所定义的前瞻性陈述，其中包含若干重大风险与不确定性。有关风险因素的详细说明，请参阅公司今日发布的新闻稿及官网（www.asml.com）所载演示文稿中的“免责条款”，亦可查阅阿斯麦向美国证券交易委员会（Securities and Exchange Commission）提交的年度报告（Form 20-F）及其他相关文件。
With that, I would like to turn the call over to Christophe Fouquet for a brief introduction.
至此，我将电话交由克里斯托夫·富凯进行简要介绍。
Christophe Fouquet
克里斯托夫·富凯
President, CEO and Chair of the Board of Management
总裁、首席执行官兼管理委员会主席
Thank you, Jim. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter and full year 2025 results conference call. Before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the fourth quarter results and full year 2025 results as well as provide some additional comments on the current business environment and on our future business outlook. Roger?
谢谢吉姆。各位好，欢迎参加我们 2025 年第四季度及全年业绩电话会议。在进入问答环节之前，罗杰和我想先就 2025 年第四季度及全年业绩作一概述，并发表相关评论；同时，我们还将就当前经营环境及未来业务展望补充一些看法。罗杰，请您开始。
R.J.M. Dassen
罗杰·J·M·达森
Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board
执行副总裁、首席财务官及管理委员会成员
Thank you, Christophe, and welcome, everyone. I will first review the fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial accomplishments and then provide guidance for the first quarter of 2026. Let me start with our fourth quarter accomplishments. In fourth quarter of 2025, total net sales were EUR 9.7 billion, which is within our guidance. Net system sales were EUR 7.6 billion, which includes EUR 3.6 billion from EUV system sales, including 2 High NA systems, and EUR 4 billion from non-EUV system sales. Net system sales were driven by Logic at 70%, with the remaining 30% coming from Memory. Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in at EUR 2.1 billion, as guided. Gross margin for the quarter was also within guidance at 52.2%.
感谢克里斯托弗，也欢迎各位参会。我将首先回顾 2025 年第四季度及全年财务业绩，随后提供 2026 年第一季度的业绩指引。先从第四季度业绩说起：2025 年第四季度，公司总净销售额为 97 亿欧元，符合此前指引；其中，设备净销售额为 76 亿欧元，包括 36 亿欧元的极紫外光刻（EUV）设备销售额（含 2 台高数值孔径（High NA）设备）以及 40 亿欧元的非 EUV 设备销售额；设备净销售额中，逻辑芯片领域占比 70%，存储芯片领域占其余 30%；本季度装机基础管理业务销售额为 21 亿欧元，符合此前指引；当季毛利率亦符合指引，为 52.2%。
On operating expenses, R&D expenses were slightly higher than expected at rounded EUR 1.3 billion mainly due to higher nonrecurring personnel costs and the recognition of a grant that shifted into 2026. SG&A expenses also came in higher than guided at EUR 375 million, driven mostly by higher mainly nonrecurring salary-related costs, the sale of receivables and pull-in of certain IT spending. The effective tax rate for Q4 was 18%. For the full year 2025, the annualized effective tax rate came in at 17.7%. Net income in Q4 was EUR 2.8 billion, representing 29.2% of total net sales, resulting in earnings per share of EUR 7.35.
在运营费用方面，研发费用略高于预期，约为 13 亿欧元，主要原因包括非经常性人力成本上升，以及一笔原本应于 2026 年确认的政府补助提前计入。销售、一般及行政管理（SG&A）费用亦高于此前指引，达 3.75 亿欧元，主要受较高的（主要为非经常性）薪资相关成本、应收账款出售以及部分 IT 支出提前发生等因素驱动。第四季度实际税率为 18%；2025 财年全年化实际税率则为 17.7%。第四季度净利润为 28 亿欧元，占当期总净销售额的 29.2%，每股收益为 7.35 欧元。
Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the fourth quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of EUR 13.3 billion. Our Q4 free cash flow was EUR 10.9 billion, which was significantly higher relative to the previous quarters of this year, with the majority of the cash coming in at the very end of the quarter.
资产负债表方面：截至第四季度末，公司现金、现金等价物及短期投资余额为 133 亿欧元。第四季度自由现金流为 109 亿欧元，显著高于本年度此前各季度，其中大部分现金流入集中于该季度末尾。
Moving to the order book. Q4 net bookings came in at EUR 13.2 billion, split between EUR 7.4 billion of EUV systems and EUR 5.8 billion of non-EUV systems. Net bookings in the quarter were slightly weighted towards Memory with 56% of bookings and Logic accounting for the remaining 44%.
订单情况如下：第四季度净预订额为 132 亿欧元，其中极紫外光刻（EUV）设备为 74 亿欧元，非 EUV 设备为 58 亿欧元。本季度净预订额略偏向存储芯片领域，占比 56%；逻辑芯片领域则占剩余的 44%。
Turning now to the full year. Net sales came in at EUR 32.7 billion with a gross margin of 52.8%. EUV system sales realized from 48 systems, including High NA, were EUR 11.6 billion, which was 39% higher than 2024. Deep UV system sales decreased 6% year-over-year to EUR 12 billion. Our metrology and inspection system sales increased 28% from 2024 to EUR 825 million.
再来看全年业绩：全年净销售额为 327 亿欧元，毛利率为 52.8%。EUV 设备（含高数值孔径 High NA 机型）共交付 48 台，销售额达 116 亿欧元，较 2024 年增长 39%。深紫外光刻（DUV）设备销售额同比下降 6%，至 120 亿欧元。计量与检测设备销售额同比增长 28%，达 8.25 亿欧元。
Looking at the market segments for 2025. Logic system revenue was EUR 16.1 billion, 22% higher than 2024. Memory system revenue was EUR 8.4 billion, 2% lower than 2024, and Installed Base Management sales were EUR 8.2 billion, 26% higher than 2024. We concluded 2025 with a backlog of around EUR 38.8 billion. In 2025, we continue to invest in innovation across our full product portfolio, increasing R&D spending to EUR 4.7 billion or about 14% of sales. SG&A increased to EUR 1.3 billion in 2025, which was about 4% of sales. Net income for the full year was EUR 9.6 billion, 29.4% of net sales, resulting in an earnings per share of EUR 24.73. 2025, we generated free cash flow of EUR 11 billion.
2025 年各市场细分领域情况如下：逻辑器件系统营收为 161 亿欧元，较 2024 年增长 22%；存储器件系统营收为 84 亿欧元，较 2024 年下降 2%；已安装基础管理业务销售额为 82 亿欧元，较 2024 年增长 26%。截至 2025 年底，公司未交货订单总额约为 388 亿欧元。2025 年，我们继续在全部产品投资组合中投入创新，研发支出增至 47 亿欧元，约占销售额的 14%。销售、一般及行政管理费用（SG&A）在 2025 年升至 13 亿欧元，约占销售额的 4%。全年净利润为 96 亿欧元，占净销售额的 29.4%，每股收益为 24.73 欧元。2025 年，公司实现自由现金流量 110 亿欧元。
With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the first quarter of 2026. We expect Q1 total net sales to be between EUR 8.2 billion and EUR 8.9 billion. We expect our Q1 Installed Base Management sales to be around EUR 2.4 billion. Gross margin for Q1 is expected to be between 51% and 53%. Expected R&D expenses for Q1 are around EUR 1.2 billion, and SG&A is expected to be around EUR 0.3 billion. For the full year 2026, we expect net sales to be between EUR 34 billion and EUR 39 billion, with a gross margin of between 51% and 53%.
基于上述情况，我将介绍我们对 2026 年第一季度的业绩预期。我们预计第一季度总净销售额将在 82 亿欧元至 89 亿欧元之间；第一季度装机基础管理业务销售额预计约为 24 亿欧元；第一季度毛利率预计为 51%至 53%；第一季度研发费用预计约为 12 亿欧元，销售、一般及行政（SG&A）费用预计约为 3 亿欧元。对于整个 2026 财年，我们预计净销售额将在 340 亿欧元至 390 亿欧元之间，毛利率为 51%至 53%。
Regarding our cash return to our shareholders in Q4, ASML second interim dividend over 2025 of EUR 1.60 per ordinary share. ASML intends to declare a total dividend for the year 2025 of EUR 7.50 per ordinary share, which is a 17% increase compared to 2024. An interim dividend of EUR 1.60 per ordinary share will be made payable on February 18, 2026. Recognizing this interim dividend and the 2 interim dividends of EUR 1.60 per ordinary share paid in 2025, this leads to a total dividend -- final dividend proposal to the Annual General Meeting of EUR 2.70 per ordinary share.
关于公司在第四季度向股东返还现金的情况：阿斯麦（ASML）宣布派发 2025 财年第二期中期股息，每股普通股 1.60 欧元。阿斯麦计划就 2025 财年宣告总额为每股普通股 7.50 欧元的股息，较 2024 财年增长 17%。其中，每股普通股 1.60 欧元的中期股息将于 2026 年 2 月 18 日支付。在计入本次中期股息以及 2025 年已支付的两期中期股息（均为每股普通股 1.60 欧元）后，公司向年度股东大会提出的最终股息分配方案为每股普通股 2.70 欧元。
In Q4 2025, we purchased shares for a total amount of around EUR 1.7 billion. This program finished in December 2025 with a total of EUR 7.6 billion repurchased out of the up to EUR 12 billion program. We returned EUR 8.5 billion to shareholders through a combination of dividends and share buybacks in 2025. ASML announced a new share buyback program effective today and to be executed by December 31, 2028. We intend to repurchase shares of an amount up to EUR 12 billion, of which we expect a total of up to EUR 2 million will be used to cover employee share plans. We intend to cancel the remainder of the shares repurchase.
2025 年第四季度，我们以总计约 17 亿欧元的价格购入了公司股票。该股票回购计划已于 2025 年 12 月结束，累计回购金额达 76 亿欧元，占原定最高 120 亿欧元回购计划的绝大部分。2025 年，我们通过派发股息与股票回购相结合的方式，向股东返还资金共计 85 亿欧元。阿斯麦今日宣布启动一项新的股票回购计划，即日起生效，执行截止日期为 2028 年 12 月 31 日。我们计划回购总额最高达 120 亿欧元的股票，其中预计最多 200 万欧元将用于覆盖员工持股计划所需股份，其余回购的股票则计划予以注销。
With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Christophe.
至此，我将会议主持权交还给克里斯托夫。
Christophe Fouquet
克里斯托夫·富凯
President, CEO and Chair of the Board of Management
总裁、首席执行官兼管理委员会主席
Thank you, Roger. As Roger has highlighted, we Finished the year with a very strong quarter with good financial results. The market outlook has improved notably over the last months, especially as related to the continued buildup of data centers and AI-related infrastructure. This buildup is now translated into additional capacity needs at our advanced logic and DRAM customers and, in turn, an increased demand across our product portfolio, especially in our EUV business.
谢谢罗杰。正如罗杰所强调的，我们以极为强劲的第四季度业绩圆满收官，财务表现优异。过去数月来，市场前景显著改善，尤其是数据中心及人工智能相关基础设施的持续建设，对此起到了关键推动作用。这一建设热潮已转化为我们先进逻辑芯片与 DRAM 客户对产能的额外需求，并进一步带动了我们全产品组合的需求增长，尤其体现在极紫外光刻（EUV）业务板块。
Over the past quarters, we have seen a notable increase in acceleration of capacity expansion planning across a large majority of our customer base. In advanced logic, our foundry customers have become more positive on the long-term sustainability of demand on a number of fronts. AI accelerators are migrating from the 4-nanometer node to the more litho-intensive 3-nanometer node. At the same time, customers continue to ramp the 2-nanometer node in support of next-generation HPC and mobile application.
过去几个季度，我们观察到绝大多数客户在产能扩张规划方面的节奏显著加快。在先进逻辑芯片领域，我们的晶圆代工客户对需求长期可持续性的看法更加乐观，这体现在多个方面：AI 加速器正从 4 纳米制程节点向光刻工艺要求更高的 3 纳米节点迁移；与此同时，客户仍在持续推进 2 纳米节点的量产，以支持下一代高性能计算（HPC）和移动应用。
In Memory, our customers are reporting very strong demand for both HBM and DDR products, with supply remaining very tight through at least 2026 as they ramp both their 1B and 1C nodes in support of the demand. In addition, DRAM customers continue to adopt more EUV layers on those nodes. This is expected to continue on their future nodes as they migrate more multi-patterning Deep UV to single exposed EUV, resulting in an increase in litho intensity.
在存储领域，客户报告称高带宽内存（HBM）和 DDR 产品的需求极为强劲；为满足该需求，客户正加速推进 1B 和 1C 节点的量产，导致供应至少持续紧张至 2026 年。此外，DRAM 客户在这些节点上继续增加极紫外光刻（EUV）工艺层的使用。随着客户在未来节点中将更多采用深紫外光刻（DUV）的多重曝光工艺转向单次曝光的 EUV 工艺，预计这一趋势将持续，从而进一步提升光刻工艺强度。
As a result of these dynamics, we see our customer in both segments increasing and accelerating capacity expansion plans to support the very strong demand they are seeing. We expect these investments to generate business for ASML in 2026 and beyond.
受上述动态影响，我们观察到，两大细分市场的客户均在加大并加快产能扩张计划，以应对当前所面临的强劲需求。我们预计，这些投资将为阿斯麦在 2026 年及之后带来业务增长。
Starting first with EUV. We expect revenues to be up significantly this year as a result of the dynamics in both advanced logic and DRAM. In non-EUV, we expect revenues for 2026 to be similar to last year as our advanced logic and memory customer expand capacity. As part of the outlook for non-EUV, we expect the China region share in our total net sales in 2026 to be in line with our current system backlog, which is around 20%. We also expect our metrology and inspection businesses to grow significantly as customers increasingly invest in enhancing their process control strategy.
首先来看极紫外光刻（EUV）业务。受先进逻辑芯片与 DRAM 市场动态推动，我们预计今年 EUV 营收将实现大幅增长。在非 EUV 领域，随着我们在先进逻辑芯片与存储器领域的客户持续扩产，我们预计 2026 年非 EUV 营收将与去年基本持平。就非 EUV 业务展望而言，我们预计中国地区在公司 2026 年总净销售额中的占比将与当前系统订单 backlog 水平一致，约为 20%。此外，随着客户日益加大对工艺控制策略优化的投入，我们预计计量与检测业务也将实现显著增长。
For Installed Base Management, we expect another year of revenue growth. This is primarily the result of increasing service revenue from our growing installed base of EUV systems and of our customer plans for performance upgrades to support their rapidly increasing capacity requirements.
在已安装设备管理（Installed Base Management）业务方面，我们预计收入将继续实现增长。这主要得益于 EUV 设备装机量持续扩大所带来的服务收入增长，以及客户为满足其快速提升的产能需求而制定的性能升级计划。
Turning to technology. In EUV, we continue to make progress driving down the cost of technology on our customer most advanced processes. We ramped our NXE:3800E for 2025, and its productivity gains support further replacement of complex multi-patterning with single exposed EUV for multiple layers on current and future DRAM. We also expect both immersion and EUV litho intensity to increase as customers migrate from 6 F-square technology to 4 F-square architectures.
转向技术领域。在极紫外光（EUV）方面，我们持续取得进展，不断降低该技术在客户最先进制程上的应用成本。我们已于 2025 年启动 NXE:3800E 机型的量产爬坡，其生产效率提升将助力进一步以单次曝光 EUV 工艺替代复杂的多重图形工艺，应用于当前及未来多层 DRAM 制造。此外，随着客户从 6F²技术向 4F²架构迁移，浸润式光刻与 EUV 光刻的应用强度预计均将提升。
With regard to High NA, our customers are reporting good progress on their qualification of the technology for logic and DRAM applications in their R&D facilities. Intel announced last month the qualification and acceptance of their EXE:5200B system, which will be used in high-volume manufacturing for their leading-edge nodes. We expect more systems to be released to our customer in 2026, supporting their preparation for the insertion of High NA in high-volume manufacturing.
关于高数值孔径（High NA）技术，我们的客户报告称，其在研发设施中针对逻辑芯片和 DRAM 应用的技术认证工作进展顺利。英特尔上月宣布，其 EXE:5200B 系统已通过认证并完成验收，该系统将用于其最先进制程节点的大规模量产。我们预计 2026 年将向客户交付更多 High NA 系统，以支持其为 High NA 技术投入大规模量产所开展的准备工作。
With the continued increase of 3D structure in advanced logic and memory, we see more adoption of our [ multi-e-beam ] inspection system to detect optically nonvisible yield-limiting defects. Our progress on system maturity and productivity supports further use of this multi-beam system in high-volume manufacturing on the most advanced nodes.
随着先进逻辑芯片和存储芯片中三维结构的持续增加，我们看到客户越来越多地采用我们的[多电子束]检测系统，以识别光学手段无法观测到的、影响良率的缺陷。我们在系统成熟度和生产效率方面取得的进展，支持该多电子束系统在最先进制程节点的大规模量产中进一步应用。
In summary, our product portfolio road map remains focused on supporting the road map requirements of our customers and driving our overall competitiveness. We look forward to sharing more performance data at the SPIE Advanced Lithography Conference in February. Looking longer term, the last few months have confirmed the positive impact of AI on customer demand for our advanced product and especially for our EUV system. As we shared during our Capital Market Day in November 2024, we see the end market dynamics supporting a shift in product mix towards more demand for our advanced lithography products and an increase in litho intensity. The combination of our strong productivity road map on Low NA and the introduction of High NA supports further cost of technology reduction. It also supports the conversion of more multi-patterning Deep UV to single EUV exposure especially on advanced DRAM nodes. In line with what we shared at the 2024 Capital Market Day, we expect a [ 2000 ] revenue opportunity between EUR 44 billion and EUR 60 billion with an expected gross margin between 56% and 60%.
总而言之，我们的产品组合路线图仍聚焦于满足客户路线图需求，并提升公司整体竞争力。我们期待在 2 月举行的 SPIE 先进光刻大会上分享更多性能数据。从更长远的角度看，过去几个月进一步印证了人工智能（AI）对客户采购我们先进产品——尤其是极紫外光刻（EUV）系统——所形成的积极拉动作用。正如我们在 2024 年 11 月资本市场日上所阐述的，终端市场动态正推动产品结构向更高端的光刻产品倾斜，即对先进光刻设备的需求持续增长，同时光刻工艺强度（litho intensity）也在提升。我们在低数值孔径（Low NA）领域强劲的生产力提升路线图，叠加高数值孔径（High NA）系统的推出，将进一步降低技术成本；同时，也将推动更多采用多重图案化深紫外光（multi-patterning Deep UV）的工艺转向单次 EUV 曝光，尤其在先进 DRAM 制程节点上。与我们在 2024 年资本市场日所披露的内容一致，我们预计[2000]年的营收机会区间为 440 亿至 600 亿欧元，预期毛利率为 56%至 60%。
With that, we will be happy to take your questions.
接下来，我们很乐意回答各位的提问。
Jim Kavanagh
吉姆·卡瓦纳（Jim Kavanagh）
Vice President of Investor Relations
投资者关系副总裁
Thank you, Roger, and thank you, Christophe. Now the operator will instruct everyone momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] Now operator, could we have your final instruction and then the first question, please?
谢谢您，罗杰；也感谢您，克里斯托夫。接下来，主持人将马上为大家说明问答环节的相关流程。[主持人说明] 现在，请主持人给出最终提示，然后开始第一个问题，谢谢！
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator
操作员
[Operator Instructions] And our first questions come from C.J. Muse from Cantor Fitzgerald.
[主持人说明] 我们第一个问题来自康托·菲茨杰拉德（Cantor Fitzgerald）的 C.J.缪斯（C.J. Muse）。
Christopher Muse
克里斯托弗·缪斯
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., Research Division
康托·菲茨杰拉德公司，研究部
So I guess first question, trying to better understand your outlook for calendar '26. Based on your EUV bookings, it looks like you're entering the year with about 114 Low NA-tools and your implied guide is about 56, give or take, Low NA. So is this a function of lack of certainty around the precise timing of clean room space adds? Are you facing challenges in sourcing lenses from Carl Zeiss? Are you seeing extension of lead times? Would love to hear your thoughts around those moving parts.
那么，我的第一个问题，是想更深入地了解贵公司对 2026 年日历年度的展望。根据贵公司极紫外光刻（EUV）设备的订单情况，您似乎将以约 114 台低数值孔径（Low NA）设备进入该年度，而贵公司隐含的全年出货指引约为 56 台（上下浮动若干）。那么，这一显著下调是否源于洁净室空间扩建时间点尚不明确？贵公司是否正面临从卡尔·蔡司（Carl Zeiss）采购镜头的挑战？抑或交货周期正在进一步延长？非常期待您就上述各项影响因素分享您的看法。
R.J.M. Dassen
R.J.M. 达森
Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board
执行副总裁、首席财务官及管理委员会成员
Yes, C.J., indeed, I think it's a number of the things I just called out, right? So obviously, we are ramping during the year to accommodate the demand is there. but the demand is also a little bit dependent on the progress that our customers are making in terms of the completion of their fabs during the year. So that's an important element in the bandwidth, if you like, of the guidance that we provide. So to a large extent, it's driven by that. It's driven by our ability to execute and to continuously ramp or move rate quarter-on-quarter. Those, I would say, are the most important drivers of the corridor that you just alluded to.
是的，C.J.，的确如此。我认为这正是我刚才提到的若干因素之一，对吧？显然，我们将在本年度内持续提升产能，以满足市场需求。但需求本身在一定程度上也取决于我们的客户在年内完成其晶圆厂建设的进展。因此，这构成了我们所给出业绩指引中“带宽”（即预测区间）的一个关键要素。在很大程度上，该指引区间正是由此驱动的；此外，它还取决于我们自身的执行能力，以及能否持续实现季度环比的产能爬坡或速率提升。我认为，这些正是您刚才所提及的业绩区间最重要的驱动因素。
Christopher Muse
克里斯托弗·缪斯
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., Research Division
康托·菲茨杰拉德公司，研究部
Great. And as a follow-up, I guess, on the High NA side, is there any change in terms of your vision for revenue in 4 to 7 tools in calendar '26? And then more importantly, how are you thinking about adoption? Do you think there's an opportunity for follow-on High NA orders in the second half? And could we be surprised by seeing DRAM adopt sooner than logic?
很好。作为跟进，我想再请教一下高数值孔径（High NA）光刻机方面：您对 2026 年全年交付 4 至 7 台设备的营收展望是否有所调整？更重要的是，您如何看待市场采用情况？您是否认为在下半年存在追加高数值孔径设备订单的机会？另外，DRAM 客户是否会比逻辑芯片客户更早采用该技术，从而带来意外之喜？
Christophe Fouquet
克里斯托夫·富凯
President, CEO and Chair of the Board of Management
总裁、首席执行官兼管理委员会主席
Well, I think there's no major changes compared to what we discussed last quarter, C.J. So I think that in terms of adoption, I mentioned it, we continue to see good progress at both DRAM and logic customer. I think some of our customers are even starting to play with limited product wafer to see the performance of the tool, which is a good news. We still expect a lot of those qualification data collection to last most of the year, which means that when it comes to decision for insertion new order, we indeed look at the second half of this year, 2027.
嗯，我认为与上一季度讨论的情况相比，并没有重大变化，C.J.。就市场采用情况而言，正如我之前提到的，我们在 DRAM 和逻辑芯片客户方面均持续看到良好进展。部分客户甚至已开始使用少量量产晶圆进行设备性能测试，这是个好消息。我们预计，大部分资格认证数据的收集工作将持续到今年全年，这意味着关于新订单插入的决策，我们确实要等到今年下半年，即 2027 年。
On the question if it's going to be DRAM or logic first, I think -- well, it's a bit of a neck-to-neck race right now. So hard to say. We see really good progress on both and the appetite to test the technology, I would say, in the coming months, sorry, on -- again, on product in both DRAM and Logic customers.
至于究竟是 DRAM 还是逻辑芯片客户将率先采用该技术，我认为——目前两者基本处于齐头并进的状态，因此很难断言。我们在两类客户中均观察到非常积极的进展，客户对在量产晶圆上测试该技术的兴趣也十分浓厚；我指的是接下来几个月内，在 DRAM 和逻辑芯片客户处开展的量产晶圆测试。
R.J.M. Dassen
R.J.M. 达森
Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board
执行副总裁、首席财务官及管理委员会成员
And maybe a final comment too, C.J., because you referenced, I think, 114 tools in the backlog, if I understood you correctly on EUV. I would tell you, I think that's a little bit on the high end at EUR 25.5 billion of total value of EUV, I think -- and that obviously includes also High NA. You might be a little bit on the high end of your unit number there.
另外，C.J.，或许您最后还能再补充一点意见。您刚才提到极紫外光刻（EUV）设备的订单 backlog 中有 114 台，如果我理解正确的话。我想提醒您，按 EUV 设备总价值 255 亿欧元计算，这个台数可能略偏高——该金额显然也包含了高数值孔径（High NA）设备。因此，您所给出的设备台数上限可能稍显偏高。
Operator
操作员
We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the next questions come from the line of Joe Quatrochi from Wells Fargo.
接下来，我们将进入下一个问题环节。下一位提问者来自富国银行（Wells Fargo）的乔·夸特罗奇（Joe Quatrochi）。
Joseph Quatrochi
约瑟夫·夸特罗奇（Joseph Quatrochi）
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division
韦尔斯 Fargo 证券有限责任公司，研究部
I guess I wanted to just go back to the 2026 kind of revenue growth guidance. If I look at the range between 4% and 19% growth, what type of those variables, I guess, are ASML controlled versus your customers controlled?
我想再回到公司对 2026 年营收增长的指引上。若观察 4% 至 19% 这一增长区间，那么其中哪些变量是 ASML 自身可控的，又有哪些是由客户掌控的？
R.J.M. Dassen
R.J.M. 达森
Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board
执行副总裁、首席财务官及管理委员会成员
Joe, I think I just said it, right? I mean it's obviously to a very large extent, driven by the progress that our customers are making in completing the fabs and their ability to take in the tool. So that's a significant one in terms of whether the demand falls in '26 or whether it falls a little bit beyond '26. And then, of course, there is our ability to execute, but it all starts with our ability -- with the ability of our customers to get the fabs in order and the episodes in order in due time. So it's a bit of a combination of both, I would argue.
乔，我想我刚才已经说过了，对吧？我的意思是，这在很大程度上显然取决于我们的客户在晶圆厂建设完工以及设备接收能力方面的进展。因此，这一点至关重要，将决定需求是落在 2026 年，还是略微延后至 2026 年之后。当然，我们自身的执行能力也很重要，但一切的前提，是我们客户的晶圆厂能否按时有序建成，相关安装环节能否按时有序推进。所以，我认为这实际上是两方面因素共同作用的结果。
Joseph Quatrochi
约瑟夫·夸特罗奇
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division
韦尔斯 Fargo 证券有限责任公司，研究部
Okay. So I guess just maybe as a follow-up, just can you remind us just how do we think about the manufacturing capacity capabilities in terms of just like the number of Low NA EUV tools? I know you've had some targets out there from some Analyst Days previously, but maybe just an update there.
好的。那么，作为跟进，能否请您再为我们简要说明一下，在低数值孔径（Low NA）极紫外光（EUV）光刻机的制造产能方面，我们应如何理解当前的能力水平？我知道您此前在分析师日活动中曾公布过一些目标数字，但或许可以就此提供最新更新。
R.J.M. Dassen
R.J.M. 达森
Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board
执行副总裁、首席财务官及管理委员会成员
Yes, Joe. So what we've done, and this is the way we talked about it in the past, we have put in infrastructure such that we can respond, let's say, within a 12 months or a little over that to demand. So that means that what we call the long lead time items, anything that takes a lot longer than, let's say, 12 to 18 months, that is in place. So we have a clean room in place. We have the equipment in place et cetera, et cetera.
是的，乔。我们所做的工作——正如我们过去所讨论的那样——是建立了相应的基础设施，使我们能够对市场需求在 12 个月左右，或略长一点的时间内迅速做出响应。这意味着，我们称之为“长周期物料”的所有项目（即任何制造周期远超 12 至 18 个月的项目）均已到位。例如，洁净室已建成并投入使用，相关设备也已全部安装就绪，等等。
So now what we're doing based on the stronger demand signals as we've gotten them in the past couple of months, now we're ramping up our capacity. Now you will appreciate you won't move from 44 EUV tools in 1 year to -- I'm just throwing it out -- 80 tools in the year thereafter, right? So obviously, that's a gradual process. And that's the process that we're doing. So you will see us increase our move rate quarter-on-quarter. So training -- getting the people in, training the people, et cetera, et cetera. And in that way, quarter-on-quarter, you will see an increase on the move rate, and we will do that hand-in-hand with our supply chain. So you will see the move rate increase during 2026. And in all likelihood of what we're seeing today is sustainable. You will continue to see that also beyond '26.
因此，基于过去几个月中我们所收到的更强劲的需求信号，目前我们正在提升产能。您应该能够理解，我们不可能在一年内将极紫外光刻（EUV）设备交付量从 44 台直接跃升至——我姑且举个例子——次年的 80 台，对吧？显然，这是一个循序渐进的过程，而这也正是我们当前所采取的方式。因此，您将看到我们的设备交付速率按季度持续提升：包括人员招聘、员工培训等各项工作都在同步推进。通过这种方式，我们的交付速率将实现逐季度增长，并且这一过程将与我们的供应链紧密协同。您将在 2026 年全程见证交付速率的提升；而根据我们目前所观察到的情况，这种增长态势很可能是可持续的，甚至有望延续至 2026 年之后。
Operator
操作员
We will now take our next question. And the questions come from the line of Andrew Gardiner from Citi.
接下来，我们将听取下一个问题。本问题来自花旗集团（Citi）分析师安德鲁·加迪纳（Andrew Gardiner）。
Andrew Gardiner
安德鲁·加迪纳
Citigroup Inc., Research Division
花旗集团研究部
Christophe, Roger, you've spoken today about the customers' medium-term plans being revised up. I mean we can see that too in their public statements around revenue growth and CapEx for the coming years. In particular, from your biggest customer in TSMC, you said CapEx will be significantly higher for the next few years. And I mean some of that's quite clearly reflected in the record order intake that you just reported, but also quite clearly, not all of it.
克里斯托弗、罗杰，你们今天谈到客户中期计划正在上调。我们也能从客户关于未来几年营收增长和资本支出的公开声明中看到这一点。尤其是你们最大的客户台积电，罗杰提到其未来几年的资本支出将显著增加。其中一部分显然已体现在你们刚刚公布的创纪录订单收入中，但显然并非全部。
And I'm just wondering in terms of the plans you just outlined, Roger, in terms of increasing that move rate over the coming quarters, how much more visibility are the customers providing you in terms of the equipment needs for next year and the year after? I mean, no one wants to be the bottleneck in the kind of growth that we're seeing in this industry, and I presume that goes for you guys as well, and you must be having those conversations with the customers. So can you give us any insight as to how that visibility is improving into next year and the year after?
我想了解一下，罗杰，针对您刚才概述的计划——即在接下来几个季度提高设备交付速度，客户在明年及后年的设备需求方面，向你们提供了多少进一步的明确信息？毕竟，在当前行业所呈现的这种增长态势下，谁都不愿成为瓶颈，我推测你们也同样如此，因此想必你们也在与客户就此展开相关讨论。那么，能否为我们提供一些相关信息，说明客户对明年及后年设备需求的可见性正在如何提升？
R.J.M. Dassen
R.J.M. 达森
Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board
执行副总裁、首席财务官及管理委员会成员
I think the public commentary of customers on the sustainability of the -- particularly the AI-related demand that they see on advanced logic and on memory, I think they also share that in the conversations with us. And of course, that also translates into indications that they provide to us either for very concrete orders or what we call from demand. So their indication of how they see the demand develop.
我认为，客户在公开场合就可持续性问题所发表的评论——尤其是关于他们在先进逻辑芯片和存储芯片领域所观察到的人工智能相关需求——同样也体现在他们与我们的交流中。当然，这些观点也会转化为他们向我们提供的明确订单，或我们所称的“需求信号”，即他们对未来需求走势的预判。
I think the order intake in Q4, I think, is strong evidence of that conversation and that it's not just a conversation, but they're actually also putting evidence and money into that. But they're also talking beyond this year about what their expectations are, I would say, in particular for '27. So our move rate plans that we have also takes that element into consideration. So what they tell us, I think direction is very much in line with what they say publicly. But of course, they also give us a strong indication of how they see their demand develop year-on-year.
我认为，第四季度的订单收入情况正是上述交流内容的有力佐证；这不仅停留在口头交流层面，客户更以实际行动和真金白银加以印证。此外，他们讨论的范围也不局限于今年，而是进一步延伸至未来几年，尤其是对 2027 年的预期。因此，我们在制定产能爬坡计划时，也已将这一因素纳入考量。总体而言，客户向我们传达的方向，与其公开表态高度一致；同时，他们也为我们提供了强有力的依据，用以判断其需求在未来各年度间的增长态势。
Christophe Fouquet
克里斯托夫·富凯
President, CEO and Chair of the Board of Management
总裁、首席执行官兼管理委员会主席
And maybe the one thing I'd add to that, Andrew, I think you have to be aware that -- so you have seen indeed our customer moving being far more vocal about their capacity planning. I think this has been also the results of many, many discussions with their customers, which are also providing, I would say, this midterm demand. So what we have seen really in the last 3 months in the alignment between the different parties that on the midterm, as Roger explained, we see basically a strong buildup of demand. And we have got many, many proof of that also in the last few weeks coming out of either logic or DRAM customers.
此外，安德鲁，我想补充一点：您需要意识到——正如您所见，我们的客户在产能规划方面正变得愈发积极主动。我认为，这在很大程度上源于我们与客户之间开展的大量、深入的交流，而这些交流也帮助我们形成了对中期需求的判断。事实上，在过去三个月中，我们已切实观察到各方在中期需求预期上趋于一致；正如罗杰所解释的那样，我们看到中期需求正呈现强劲增长态势。过去几周，来自逻辑芯片及 DRAM 客户的诸多订单也进一步印证了这一点。
So I think it took a bit of why to really get to that point. But we really see that happening very strongly in the last few weeks. And I think this is aligned across a large part of the ecosystem.
因此，我认为，要达到当前这一共识点确实花费了一定时间。但最近几周，这一趋势已非常明显，并且在整个产业链生态系统的大部分环节中均呈现出高度一致性。
Operator
操作员
We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Alexander Duval from Goldman Sachs.
接下来，我们将进入下一个提问环节。本环节的提问者是高盛（Goldman Sachs）的亚历山大·杜瓦尔（Alexander Duval）。
Alexander Duval
亚历山大·杜瓦尔
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division
高盛集团有限公司，研究部
Firstly, on 2026, I wanted to just go back to assumptions for the top end of your sales guidance. I was curious to what extent that would assume that China is meaningfully down. And then going back to the discussion about long-term capacity. You've obviously talked about customers being more confident on midterm demand and the longer-term situation. I think in the capacity planning you've done in the past, you talked about 80 to 90 EUV tools. But if we think very much towards the 2030 time frame, the kind of plans that the customers are talking about would imply something bigger than that. So what kind of lead time would be required for you to push beyond that kind of outcome? And would there be other means through which you could deliver the capacity needed, for example, making your tools more productive by investing in R&D?
首先，关于 2026 年，我想回顾一下贵公司销售指引上限所依据的假设。我很好奇，这一上限在多大程度上假设了中国市场将出现显著下滑。接着，回到关于长期产能的讨论：您此前已明确指出，客户对中期及更长期的需求信心有所增强。我记得，贵公司过去在产能规划中曾提到过 80 至 90 台极紫外光刻（EUV）设备的目标。但如果我们将目光进一步投向 2030 年左右的时间节点，客户当前所披露的规划规模显然会超出这一范围。那么，贵公司若要突破上述产能目标，需要多长的前置准备时间？此外，是否还存在其他方式来满足所需的产能，例如通过加大研发投入以提升现有设备的生产效率？
R.J.M. Dassen
R.J.M. 达森
Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board
执行副总裁、首席财务官及管理委员会成员
So when it comes to the top end of the expectation, when we talk about China being 20% of sales, I would argue that's across the entire range, right? So -- which obviously means that if we're talking about EUR 39 billion, you're looking at approximately EUR 8 billion of China. So I would say that probably, our expectation on China probably moves with that.
因此，当我们谈到预期的上限，即中国销售额占比达 20%时，我理解这一比例是覆盖整体销售范围的，对吗？也就是说，若总销售额为 390 亿欧元，则中国市场的销售额约为 80 亿欧元。因此，我认为我们对中国市场的预期很可能也会随之调整。
If you look at what are the key expectations on the upside of that? Well, a, as we just said, it means that our customers indeed are able to take our tools that we're able to execute on it as we currently plan and probably also that the installed base business is running on all cylinders, particularly on upgrades. Which is not illogical because upgrades obviously are in very high demand right now because it's the easiest, fastest and most effective way for customers to get additional capacity, which in the current market is obviously very, very important to them. So those would be the key elements that I would say that would drive that. And in that model, you could also envisage a China market at 20% of that total sales number.
若进一步分析推动该上限预期向上的关键因素，主要有以下几点：首先，正如我们刚才所提到的，这意味着我们的客户确实能够顺利接收并投入使用我们交付的设备，且我们自身也能按当前计划如期执行交付；其次，现有装机基础业务（尤其是设备升级业务）正全速运转。这种判断并非毫无依据，因为目前设备升级需求极为旺盛——对客户而言，升级是获取额外产能最便捷、最快捷且最有效的方式；而在当前市场环境下，这一点显然对其至关重要。上述因素便是推动该上限预期的主要驱动力。在此模型下，中国市场的销售额占公司总销售额 20%也是完全可预见的。
When you talk about the long-term demand, let me make a few comments and then Christophe, maybe you can weigh in. First, you should not forget that when we get to the 2030 time frame, obviously, at that stage, yes, we're looking at Low NA, but we're also definitely looking at High NA. And the Low NA tools that we would be providing at that point in time would, of course, be Low NA tools with, again, a higher throughput than what we have today.
当您谈到长期需求时，我想先做几点说明，随后克里斯托夫或许可以补充发表意见。首先，请不要忘记，当我们展望 2030 年这一时间节点时，届时我们固然仍在推进低数值孔径（Low NA）光刻机的发展，但高数值孔径（High NA）光刻机也必然是我们重点发展的方向。而到那时我们所提供的低数值孔径设备，自然也将是比当前产品具备更高吞吐量的新一代低数值孔径设备。
So back to your question on R&D, absolutely. We will continue to push the road map on our Low NA tools and continue to drive capacity such that per tool, the customers get more productivity than what they get today. But also, at that stage, we expect a more meaningful number of High NA tools that would provide significant additional output capacity. And in that combination, I think the numbers that you were just throwing out I think will provide output capability to customers way ahead of the numbers that we're talking about today.
回到您关于研发投入的问题，答案毫无疑问是肯定的。我们将持续推动低数值孔径设备的技术路线图，并不断提升单台设备的产能，使客户获得比目前更高的生产效率。与此同时，在该阶段，我们预计高数值孔径设备的出货量也将达到一个更具实质意义的规模，从而显著提升整体产出能力。综合这两方面因素，我认为您刚才提到的相关数字，将使客户所能获得的产出能力远超我们今天所讨论的水平。
Christophe Fouquet
克里斯托夫·富凯
President, CEO and Chair of the Board of Management
总裁、首席执行官兼管理委员会主席
Yes. I think Roger said it all. I think the way I will summarize it is that we have, I would say, the flexibility to react to the development of the market. I think we talked about mid, short term already. I think it's also true on the long term. And yes, Roger is right. The contribution of High NA, the work, we continue to do on productivity, we already planned for that, will give us even additional flexibility.
是的。我认为罗杰已经把所有要点都讲清楚了。我的总结是：我们具备灵活应对市场变化的能力。此前我们已讨论过中期和短期的情况，而这种灵活性在长期也同样适用。没错，罗杰说得对——高数值孔径（High NA）光刻机的贡献、我们在提升生产效率方面持续开展的工作，这些我们都已提前规划，将为我们带来额外的灵活性。
So with the step we have done on our capability on EUV, Deep UV in the last few years, which, you remember, we did execute despite the fact that maybe the demand was a bit lower at some point. We have created basically the right flexibility to see the market coming.
过去几年中，我们在极紫外光刻（EUV）和深紫外光刻（Deep UV）技术能力方面所取得的进展——您可能还记得，即便在某些阶段市场需求略显疲软，我们仍持续推进并成功落实了相关工作——已基本为我们构建起恰当的灵活性，以从容应对未来市场的变化。
Operator
操作员
We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Krish Sankar from TD Cowen.
接下来，我们将进入下一个提问环节。本环节的问题来自 TD Cowen 公司的克里希·桑卡尔（Krish Sankar）。
Sreekrishnan Sankarnarayanan
斯里克里斯南·桑卡纳拉亚南
TD Cowen, Research Division
TD Cowen，研究部
I had 2 of them. First one, Roger, if I try to reconcile your bookings between EUV and memory. Typically, memory has been 30% of the EUV mix. So it looks like a big jump in the memory orders last quarter was driven by Deep UV. Is that fair? And then on EUV for memory, for 1C node DDR5, are we talking about 7 to 8 EUV exposures or lower than that? And then I had a follow-up.
我有两个问题。第一个问题，罗杰，如果我尝试将你们在 EUV 和存储器领域的订单进行比对：通常情况下，存储器占 EUV 总订单的 30%左右。因此，上季度存储器订单大幅增长似乎主要由深紫外光（Deep UV）设备驱动。这样理解是否准确？第二个问题是关于存储器应用的 EUV 设备，针对 1C 节点 DDR5，我们是否需要 7 至 8 次 EUV 曝光，还是少于这个数量？此外，我还有一个后续问题。
R.J.M. Dassen
R.J.M. 达森
Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board
执行副总裁、首席财务官及管理委员会成员
Let me take the first one, and Christophe can take the second one. No, I think the order intake for memory is strong, but not just Deep UV, also EUV. And in all likelihood, if we look at the composition of our sales in 2026, you will see a major memory play in there. So the demand in '26 is far more balanced in terms of Logic versus Memory than it was in 2025. So that's what you see. But this is not just Deep UV, this is definitely also EUV.
我来回答第一个问题，第二个问题由克里斯托夫来回答。不，我认为存储器领域的订单表现强劲，但不仅限于深紫外光设备，EUV 设备的订单同样可观。而且，如果我们审视公司 2026 年的销售构成，您很可能会看到存储器业务占据显著份额。因此，2026 年的市场需求在逻辑芯片与存储器芯片之间，相较 2025 年将更为均衡。这正是您所观察到的现象。但需要强调的是，这种增长并不仅来自深紫外光设备，EUV 设备也贡献了相当大的份额。
Christophe Fouquet
克里斯托夫·富凯
President, CEO and Chair of the Board of Management
总裁、首席执行官兼管理委员会主席
Yes. And I think on EUV, I think when it comes to DRAM, I think we are going to benefit both from, of course, the demand for capacity, which we already discussed is very strong this year, most probably beyond that. And we have been talking about the number of EUV layers increasing on DRAM. This has been one of our focus. We have seen that happening in 2025. We continue to see that happening. I mentioned it in the introduction on 6 F-square but also on 4 F-square. And this is a bit of what I would call the perfect storm because when it comes to EUV as a result, DRAM share most probably will increase over time. So this is a very good dynamic on DRAM. Which, again, based on all the work we do with our customer discussion we have, we don't see stopping. So there's still some leeway for more EUV layers for more litho intensity on DRAM for sure. And we should benefit from that in the years to come.
是的。关于极紫外光刻（EUV）技术，我认为在 DRAM 领域，我们将同时受益于两方面：其一是产能需求——我们此前已讨论过，今年的需求非常强劲，且很可能持续超出预期；其二是 DRAM 中采用 EUV 工艺的层数持续增加，这一直是我们重点关注的方向之一。我们在 2025 年已观察到这一趋势，并预计该趋势将持续下去。我在开场介绍中曾提到，这一现象不仅出现在 6F²结构的 DRAM 中，也已延伸至 4F²结构。某种程度上，我将其称为“完美风暴”——正因如此，EUV 在 DRAM 中的应用占比未来很可能逐步提升。这对 DRAM 而言无疑是非常积极的发展态势。而基于我们与客户开展的大量深入交流与分析，我们并未看到这一趋势有放缓或停止的迹象。因此，DRAM 中 EUV 层数仍有进一步增加的空间，光刻工艺强度亦将持续提升。我们确信，未来几年内，我们将从中持续获益。
Sreekrishnan Sankarnarayanan
斯里克里希南·桑卡尔纳拉亚南
TD Cowen, Research Division
TD Cowen，研究部
Got it. Got it. And as a quick follow-up, sorry to get back to this manufacturing capacity. Is it fair to assume your EUV manufacturing capacity is around maybe 70 units? And does that potentially constrain your growth next year? The reason I'm asking is that is your manufacturing capacity limit crossing movement of tools between this year and next year, leading to a wide range of revenue guidance for '26?
明白了。明白了。另外，我想快速跟进一下，很抱歉再次提到制造产能问题。能否合理假设贵公司的 EUV 设备制造产能目前约为 70 台？这是否会制约公司明年的增长？我之所以这样问，是因为贵公司的制造产能上限是否会在今年与明年之间发生显著变化，从而导致 2026 财年的营收指引区间较宽？
R.J.M. Dassen
R.J.M. 达森
Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board
执行副总裁、首席财务官及管理委员会成员
Krish, as I said, our capacity is very dynamic because you -- we cannot move from one point to the other, just like that in one quarter, right? So that's why I said we had 44 units -- revenue units of EUV Low NA last year. You cannot go from one quarter to the other even from 1 year to the other from 44 to 80. So we will crank it up. Every quarter, you will see us increase move rate, you will see us increase capacity. And if the demand signals remain as strong as they are, that will continue into 2027 as well. And then I would say 70 would not be the limit that I would certainly be looking at. I think that is higher.
克里什，正如我之前所说，我们的产能具有高度动态性——因为您无法在单个季度内就轻易地从一个产能水平跃升至另一个水平，对吧？因此，我此前提到，去年我们实现了 44 台 EUV 低数值孔径（Low NA）设备的营收交付量。但即便跨年度，我们也无法简单地将产能从 44 台直接提升至 80 台。我们会逐步提升产能：每个季度，您都会看到我们的设备交付速率持续提高、产能稳步扩大。如果当前强劲的需求信号能够持续下去，这一趋势也将延续至 2027 年。因此，我认为 70 台绝非我们的产能上限；实际数字会更高。
Operator
操作员
We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Mehdi Hosseini from Susquehanna Financial Group.
接下来，我们将进入下一个提问环节。本环节的提问来自 Susquehanna 金融集团的梅赫迪·侯赛尼（Mehdi Hosseini）。
Mehdi Hosseini
梅赫迪·侯赛尼
Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division
Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP，研究部
My first one has to do with just the capacity that Roger, you just highlighted. I want to better understand EUV capacity, and the topic that has been around since the 2021 when last time we had the shortages. I want to better understand what are the key factors. As you ramp the EUV capacity, is that going to impact the booking trend? In other words, are your customers actually waiting to have a conviction of you adding incremental capacity before they commit to booking or backlog that will be shippable in '27 and beyond? And I have a follow-up.
我的第一个问题与罗杰刚才强调的产能有关。我想更深入地了解极紫外光刻（EUV）设备的产能情况，尤其是自 2021 年上一轮供应短缺以来一直备受关注的这一话题。我想更清楚地了解影响 EUV 产能的关键因素。随着你们提升 EUV 产能，这是否会影响订单趋势？换言之，客户是否实际上在等待你们明确增加产能后，才下定决心下单或签订可于 2027 年及以后交付的订单/ backlog？
R.J.M. Dassen
R.J.M. 达森
Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board
执行副总裁、首席财务官及管理委员会成员
No. I don't think, Mehdi, that's what is going on. Customers know what we're doing. We share pretty openly with customers how we're looking at our ability to increase. I think customers appreciate that we've built in far more flexibility into our model than what we had before. If anything, if customers start to smell that for a certain year, you might be supply constrained, actually, the dynamic is the other way around. They want to make sure that they get their booking in before they are too late, right? So as a matter of fact, I would say, if they believe that the capacity might become a choke point, then they will jump to put in the orders. So I think it's more that than that they're waiting for a definitive confirmation that the capacity is there. But we'll very openly share with them what our plans are. And again, they appreciate the flexibility that we've built in and the significant reduction of response time that we have created as a result of creating the long lead time items.
不，我认为情况并非如此，梅赫迪。客户非常清楚我们正在做什么。我们与客户非常坦诚地分享了我们对自身产能提升能力的评估。我认为，客户非常认可我们在当前模型中所构建的灵活性，这远超以往。事实上，如果客户察觉到某一年度可能出现供应受限的情况，其反应反而会是另一番景象：他们会争先恐后地提前下单，以免错失良机，对吧？因此，我反倒认为，一旦客户相信产能可能成为瓶颈，他们便会迅速提交订单，而不是静待我们给出产能已完全到位的明确确认。当然，我们会非常公开地向客户通报我们的具体计划。此外，客户也十分赞赏我们所构建的这种灵活性，以及通过提前启动长周期物料采购而显著缩短的响应时间。
Mehdi Hosseini
梅赫迪·侯赛尼
Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP, Research Division
Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP，研究部
Okay. Great. And I want to go back to the comments in the transcript that was posted with the earnings report. There was a comment that some of the bookings will be shippable in '27. So the question that I have is, what would it take for you to hit the high end of revenue guide for this year? Is that the China? I'm assuming that China backlog has a shorter lifetime. And to that extent, is that the China that is going to impact your ability to hit the high end of your revenue guide range?
好的，非常感谢。我想回到随财报一同发布的电话会议纪要中的相关评论。纪要中提到，部分订单将在 2027 年交付。因此，我想请教的是：贵公司今年要达到营收指引区间的上限，需要满足哪些条件？这是否与中国市场有关？我推测，中国市场的订单积压周期相对较短。就此而言，中国市场是否会成为影响贵公司实现今年营收指引上限的关键因素？
R.J.M. Dassen
R.J.M. 达森
Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board
执行副总裁、首席财务官及管理委员会成员
I think I said it. I think first and foremost, it's the readiness of our customers to take tools. I think that is number one. So their ability to complete fab construction, put the pedestals and take our tools. I think that's constraint number one.
我想我已经提到了。首先，也是最重要的，是客户接收设备的准备就绪程度。我认为这是首要制约因素。也就是说，客户能否顺利完成晶圆厂建设、安装好基座并接收我们的设备。我认为这是第一大制约因素。
Constraint number two, our ability to execute. So I just talked about what we're doing to increase the ramp. We're comfortable with that. But of course, everyone needs to sing from the same song sheet, not just us, but also the supply chain. So we got to make sure that everyone is tuned into the same ramp that we have in place. So that would be the second one. So that would be more of a supply factor.
第二大制约因素，则是我们自身的执行能力。我刚才已谈到我们为加快产能爬坡所采取的措施，对此我们持乐观态度。但当然，这不仅需要我们自身步调一致，也需要整个供应链协同配合。因此，我们必须确保所有相关方都与我们当前制定的产能爬坡计划保持同步。这就是第二点，更偏向于供应端的因素。
On the demand side, I think it's the demand for upgrades, and I gave some color on that earlier on. And as I mentioned on China, I think in our guidance, China is 20% of revenue. So China would breathe along with the corridor that we have given.
在需求端，我认为主要是设备升级带来的需求，我之前已就此做过一些说明。另外，关于中国市场，如我此前所提，其营收占比为 20%。因此，中国市场的表现将与我们给出的营收区间保持一致。
Operator
操作员
We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Didier Scemama from Bank of America.
接下来，我们将进入下一个问题。本问题来自美国银行（Bank of America）分析师迪迪埃·谢马马（Didier Scemama）。
Didier Scemama
迪迪埃·谢马马
BofA Securities, Research Division
美国银行证券公司，研究部
I'm just asking about 4 F-square and DRAM really. So I think Christophe, you mentioned in your press release that you see in your interaction with DRAM customers that, in fact, DUV and EUV layer count could go up with 4 F-square. So I'm just wondering, obviously, there is a school of thought in the market that 4 F-square would lead to a cliff in EUV demand from DRAM customers whenever we see 4 F-square introduction, say, 2028. So is that a risk that you think is significantly diminishing because obviously, the view is reuse of tool capacity? Or do you think that now as the EUV layer count goes up and there is also a view that now wafer capacity in DRAM is going to have to expand dramatically over the course of the next 5 years because of Edge AI and more complex LLMs, that effectively this risk of a cliff and significant reuse of EUV tools is effectively really diminishing dramatically. I've got a follow-up as well.
我仅就 4F²和 DRAM 相关问题进行提问。克里斯托夫，您在新闻稿中提到，根据与 DRAM 客户沟通的情况，实际上在采用 4F²技术后，DUV 和 EUV 光刻层数可能反而会增加。因此我想了解：目前市场上有一种观点认为，一旦 2028 年左右推出 4F²技术，DRAM 客户对 EUV 设备的需求将骤然下滑——即所谓“断崖式下跌”。那么，您是否认为这一风险已显著减弱？原因是否在于现有 EUV 设备产能可被重复利用？抑或，随着 EUV 光刻层数的增加，以及考虑到边缘 AI 和更复杂的 LLMs 将驱动 DRAM 晶圆产能在未来五年内大幅扩张，这种“断崖式下跌”风险及 EUV 设备大规模重复利用的可能性，事实上正急剧减弱？此外，我还有一个后续问题。
Christophe Fouquet
克里斯托夫·富凯
President, CEO and Chair of the Board of Management
总裁、首席执行官兼管理委员会主席
Yes. I'll try to answer all the points. So I think the first thing to say is, if you look at 4 F-square, the structure require more advanced litho mass. So that's the first thing. So you get basically to look at a more complex structure. And that structure is going to require more lithography. This is why we mentioned that both, in fact, the immersion and EUV will go up.
是的，我将尽力回答所有问题。首先需要说明的是，如果观察 4F²结构，其架构要求更先进的光刻设备。这是第一点。也就是说，您所面对的是一种更为复杂的结构，而这种结构将需要更多的光刻工艺。因此，我们此前提到，浸没式光刻（Immersion）和极紫外光刻（EUV）的需求量均将上升。
Now you talk about a cliff a lot. Customers don't like cliff. Cliff are very bad for operation. What customers like is optimized technology over several nodes. And therefore, when we talk about EUV insertion with our customer, of course, the transition to 4 F-square is taken into account because no one wants to buy a lot of tools and be stuck with them. So cliff is never good for a customer when it comes to operation.
您多次提到“断崖式过渡”（cliff）。实际上，客户并不喜欢断崖式过渡，因为这对产线运营极为不利。客户真正青睐的是在多个制程节点上持续优化的技术路线。因此，在我们与客户讨论 EUV 导入方案时，自然会将向 4F²结构的过渡纳入考量——毕竟，没有任何客户希望大量采购设备后却很快陷入技术停滞。所以，就实际生产运营而言，“断崖式过渡”对客户永远不是一种理想选择。
And what you see happening with DRAM is that EUV basically has become a very handy tool to simplify processes, to simplify the number of steps, to simplify cycle time -- to reduce cycle time, sorry, and even to bring more capacity because if you have less mask, if you have less multi-patterning, you end up basically with more space in your fab.
而从 DRAM 领域目前的发展趋势可见，EUV 已基本成为一种极为实用的工具：它有助于简化制造工艺、减少工艺步骤、缩短（更正：降低）生产周期时间，甚至还能提升产能——因为掩模数量减少、多重图形化（multi-patterning）需求下降，晶圆厂内便能腾出更多可用空间。
So EUV, I will say that the more DRAM customers use it, the more they like it because they get benefit on all those counts. And again, they want to include the cliff. So when we made the statement in our release, basically, it's really out of many, many discussions with customers. And I think that -- well, I don't know if the risk is going down. We never thought that the risk was pretty high, but I think we are very, very confident that, again, litho intensity will grow with 4 F-square, both on Deep UV and EUV. And as I said before, we see EUV number of layers continuing to grow both before and after this transition.
关于极紫外光刻（EUV），我想强调的是：使用 EUV 的 DRAM 客户越多，他们就越认可其价值，因为他们在上述各方面均能获得切实收益。此外，客户仍希望将“断崖效应”（cliff）纳入考量。因此，我们在财报新闻稿中所作的相关表述，实际上源于与客户开展的大量、深入的多轮讨论。至于相关风险是否正在下降——我尚无法断言；但我们此前也并未认为该风险本身很高。目前，我们对光刻工艺强度（litho intensity）将随 4 倍晶圆面积（4 F-square）持续提升这一点抱有极大信心，这一趋势在深紫外光刻（Deep UV）和极紫外光刻（EUV）两大技术路径上均将显现。如前所述，我们观察到，在此次技术过渡前后，EUV 应用的工艺层数（number of layers）均将持续增长。
Didier Scemama
迪迪埃·谢马马
BofA Securities, Research Division
美国银行证券公司，研究部
Very clear. So my follow-up is on the gross margin side. So I think perhaps one element of disappointments in the guide is the gross margin. And I think you mentioned the mix of EUV, Low NA. Obviously, immersion probably going to decline because of China and then also the, let's say, upgrades business and the sort of milestone payments that might not be as strong in '26. I'm just wondering, if you look into '27, do you think that your mix of Low NA EUV will sort of revert back to what you had said before, which is the majority will be 3800E? Or is there any reason why 3-nanometer capacity expansion will continue to grow into '27? I guess the immersion question on China is anyone's guess. But if you want to have this into an answer, I'm very happy to hear it.
非常清楚。那么，我接下来的问题是关于毛利率方面的。我认为，此次业绩指引中令人失望的因素之一可能就是毛利率。您之前提到过，EUV（极紫外光刻）设备中低数值孔径（Low NA）机型的占比、浸没式光刻机（immersion）因中国市场因素而可能下滑，以及升级业务和里程碑付款在 2026 年可能不如以往强劲——这些因素或许都对毛利率构成影响。我想进一步了解：展望 2027 年，贵公司低数值孔径 EUV 设备的产品结构是否会回归此前所预期的水平，即以 NXT:3800E 机型为主？抑或 3 纳米制程的产能扩张仍将持续延伸至 2027 年？至于中国市场对浸没式光刻机的影响，目前恐怕尚无定论；但若您愿意就此作出回应，我将非常乐意聆听。
R.J.M. Dassen
R.J.M. 达森
Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board
执行副总裁、首席财务官及管理委员会成员
Didier, on the mix for EUV, customers liked our 3800 so much that they took as much as they could get in terms of 3800 rather than 3600 in '25. But of course, we had a number of 3600s that still needed to be completed that we had all the parts for. And those will be shipped in all likelihood in '26. So the '27, mix in terms of EUV should be substantially better. And also, at that point in time, we're probably looking at the next generation. So the EUV mix by '27 should be better than '26. And you're right, that is an important element because if you look at how we plan towards the 56% to 60% gross margin in 2030. It's pretty clear that new generations of Low NA EUV are critical in that regard. So the EUV mix in '27 will be better than it is in '26.
迪迪埃，关于极紫外光刻（EUV）设备的产品结构：客户对我们的 NXT:3800 机型极为青睐，因此在 2025 年尽可能多地采购了 3800 机型，而非 3600 机型。当然，我们此前仍有若干台 3600 机型尚未完成组装，但所有所需零部件均已齐备；这些设备极有可能于 2026 年全部交付。因此，到 2027 年，EUV 设备的产品结构将显著优化。此外，届时我们可能已开始交付下一代机型。故而，2027 年的 EUV 产品结构将优于 2026 年。您说得完全正确，这一点至关重要——因为若审视我们为实现 2030 年 56%至 60%毛利率目标所制定的规划，便可清晰看出，新型低数值孔径（Low NA）EUV 设备在此过程中具有关键作用。因此，2027 年的 EUV 产品结构将优于 2026 年。
Another mix effect that is in there indeed is on the Deep UV side. So quite a bit more dry rather than immersion. I would say, in all likelihood that is less a matter of demand, but it's supply, right? So on the supply side, we are constrained in terms of immersion for 2026. So it's in that result that with higher dry business and restrictions on the immersion side, that gives you a less favorable Deep UV mix that goes into the equation. And then an important swing factor because you still have a 2% bandwidth in the gross margin. An important element of the swing factor will be installed base and will be upgrade business. That gives you the moving parts, Didier.
另一个确实存在的产品结构影响因素体现在深紫外（Deep UV）领域。具体而言，干式光刻机的出货量将显著高于浸没式光刻机。我认为，这在很大程度上并非源于市场需求变化，而主要是供应端限制所致——我们在 2026 年浸没式光刻机的供应能力面临约束。因此，在干式业务占比提升、浸没式业务受限的综合作用下，深紫外产品组合的整体结构趋于不利，进而影响相关财务测算结果。此外，由于毛利率仍存在 2%的浮动区间，一个关键的调节变量将是已安装设备基数及升级业务收入。这些因素共同构成了影响毛利率波动的关键变量，Didier。
Didier Scemama
BofA Securities, Research Division
美国银行证券公司，研究部
No, that's great. By the way, do you want to say what you think will be the rev rec on High NA in '26? Rev rec on High NA. The amount of High NA units.
明白了，非常感谢！顺便问一下，您能否分享一下对 2026 年高数值孔径（High NA）光刻机的收入确认（rev rec）预期？即 2026 年高数值孔径光刻机的收入确认金额及交付台数。
R.J.M. Dassen
Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board
执行副总裁、首席财务官及管理委员会成员
Probably a bit more than we had this year, but I don't want to go into too much detail there.
可能略高于今年的水平，但我不想在此过多展开细节。
Operator
操作员
We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Francois Bouvignies from UBS.
接下来，我们将进入下一个问题。本问题来自瑞银集团（UBS）分析师弗朗索瓦·布维尼耶斯（Francois Bouvignies）的提问线路。
Francois-Xavier Bouvignies
弗朗索瓦-泽维尔·布维尼耶斯（Francois-Xavier Bouvignies）
UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
瑞银投资银行，研究部
I have one for Christophe and one for Roger. I mean, the first one maybe is for Christophe on the High NA. I just wanted to get in more details in here. I mean we see the industry moving into a rush in terms of capacity both at TSMC and advanced logic, I should say, and the memory overall. And I was wondering if you have a rush in this capacity, could that delay the High NA adoption? Do you see some risk happening of delay in addition because the industry is simply too busy to add capacity that they don't want to add another risk in terms of transition. So I was just wondering if it's something that's possible?
我有两个问题，分别提给克里斯托夫（Christophe）和罗杰（Roger）。第一个问题可能主要面向克里斯托夫，关于高数值孔径（High NA）光刻机。我想就此了解更多细节。目前我们看到整个行业正加速扩充产能，无论是在台积电（TSMC）及先进逻辑芯片领域，还是整体存储器领域，均呈现“抢建产能”的态势。因此我想了解：若行业正全力推进产能扩张，是否可能延缓高数值孔径（High NA）光刻技术的导入进程？您是否观察到相关风险——即由于行业已处于高度饱和状态，厂商可能不愿再承担额外风险，因而暂缓引入尚需验证的新技术？我想确认，这种情况是否确实存在可能性？
Christophe Fouquet
克里斯托夫·富凯
President, CEO and Chair of the Board of Management
总裁、首席执行官兼管理委员会主席
Well, I think from day 1, I've been talking about 3 phases of High NA adoption with R&D qualification for high-volume manufacturing, then insertion high-volume manufacturing with limited amount of layer and then the whole thing. And I would say that plan always provide basically the time to have a real qualification. So the acceleration you see today on capacity, of course, is on existing nodes that are ramping with known technology, and those nodes will call for the use of the existing product we ship today. So that's one, that's Deep UV, that's metrology inspection as we know it today.
嗯，我想从第一天起，我就一直在谈论高数值孔径（High NA）光刻机采用的三个阶段：首先是面向大规模量产的研发布局与验证，其次是有限层数的大规模量产导入，最后是全面应用。我想说的是，该计划始终为真正完成验证提供了基本所需的时间。因此，您今天看到的产能加速，当然集中在正在爬坡的既有制程节点上，而这些节点所采用的是已成熟的技术，也将主要依赖我们当前出货的现有产品。具体而言，这包括深紫外（Deep UV）光刻设备，以及我们目前所熟知的量测与检测设备。
The preparation of High NA for the next node is such that it does leave the time if customers want to use it to insert it properly. So sometimes, maybe some of you could believe that 1, 2, 3 phases is a bit long, but this is, on the other hand, the way to secure the insertion on the node because once the decision is made to use it on the node, they really want to use it. They prepare the mask for it. They qualify the whole process with it. So it's very difficult to change your mind and say, "Hey, I'm going to go back to the whole stuff." So I think customers try to do those things in such a way that they are not too sensitive to either a major acceleration or slowdown of their capacity. So it's a long answer to say, no, basically. So we don't see a risk there.
为下一代制程节点准备高数值孔径（High NA）光刻机，其时间安排足以确保客户能够顺利将其整合进产线。因此，部分同仁或许会觉得分阶段推进（如第一、第二、第三阶段）耗时略长；但另一方面，这种节奏恰恰是为了保障该技术在目标节点上的成功导入。因为一旦客户决定在该节点采用 High NA 设备，他们便会全力推进：专门为此设计和制作掩模版，并基于该设备全面验证整条工艺流程。此时再临时改变主意、转而回归原有方案，将极为困难。因此，我们认为客户会以相对稳健的方式推进各项准备工作，力求使其产能规划对重大加速或显著放缓均具备较强韧性。综上所述，简而言之——我们并不认为此处存在明显风险。
Francois-Xavier Bouvignies
弗朗索瓦-泽维尔·布维尼
UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
瑞银投资银行，研究部
Perfect. And maybe, Roger, your question -- my question is for '26. I mean, if China is 20% of revenues, if we take the midpoint, it would imply China is down about 20%, 25% year-on-year, which is mainly in Deep UV. And you guided Deep UV flat for '26, which means non-China Deep UV needs to go up by 40% for [ 0 ] year-on-year kind of pool to get the flat Deep UV.
非常完美。另外，罗杰，您的问题——其实我的问题是关于 2026 财年的：若中国市场的营收占比为 20%，取中值估算，则意味着中国区营收同比下滑约 20%至 25%，而这主要体现在深紫外（Deep UV）光刻设备领域；而您此前指引 2026 财年 Deep UV 整体营收持平，这就意味着非中国市场 Deep UV 营收需同比增长约 40%，才能抵消中国区的下滑，从而实现 Deep UV 整体营收持平的目标。
And I remember last year, I guess it's kind of a deja vu, where last year, you said there is a strong correlation between the non-China Deep UV and EUV growth. But when I look at '25, your non-China Deep UV was actually not growing much compared to EUV. You had a big disconnect between the 2. So I was wondering if there was a catch-up somehow from '25 to '26. So just trying to understand why this year, you would see this strong growth happening and we didn't see that in '25.
我记得去年的情况，感觉有点似曾相识——去年您曾提到，非中国大陆地区的深紫外光（Deep UV）设备与极紫外光（EUV）设备的增长之间存在很强的相关性。但当我审视 2025 年数据时却发现，非中国大陆地区的深紫外光设备增长实际上远不及 EUV 设备，两者之间出现了显著脱节。因此我想了解：是否存在某种“追赶效应”，即从 2025 年到 2026 年，深紫外光设备的增长正在加速补上此前的差距？我主要是想弄清楚，为何今年会看到如此强劲的增长，而这一现象在 2025 年却并未出现。
R.J.M. Dassen
R.J.M. 达森
Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board
执行副总裁、首席财务官及管理委员会成员
Yes, Francois, it's a really good question. And indeed, this is what we observed. So '24 was strong. Also on the non-China business, '24 was pretty strong also in the dry business for customers across the board. '25 disappointed a bit. If we look at '26, we see the market come back with our leading customers. Frankly, I think many of our customers are doing what we do, which is you put in the long lead time items, which, in our case, is more the EUV stuff, and you take a bit more flexibility in your shorter lead time items, which is the Deep UV business. I think that's what they've done for a significant part of the year. We actually could see the non-China Deep UV business come back in the last months of the year. And we frankly see that trajectory continue into 2026. So you're right. And that we found the '25 non-China Deep UV business disappoint. That is clearly the case. But we do see a reversal of that trend in the last months of the year and see that reversal continue into 2026.
是的，弗朗索瓦，这是个非常好的问题。事实上，我们确实观察到了这一情况。2024 年表现强劲，非中国市场业务同样表现不俗，面向所有客户的干法光刻设备业务在 2024 年也相当强劲。而 2025 年则略显疲软。展望 2026 年，我们看到市场正随着我们的头部客户逐步回暖。坦率地说，我认为许多客户采取的策略与我们类似：即优先锁定长交付周期的设备（对我们而言主要是极紫外光刻 EUV 设备），同时对短交付周期的设备（即深紫外光刻 DUV 设备）保持更高灵活性。我们认为，客户在全年大部分时间里正是这样做的。实际上，我们已观察到非中国市场的深紫外光刻设备业务在去年年末数月内开始回暖；而且坦率地讲，这一回升趋势正延续至 2026 年。因此，您的判断是正确的。2025 年非中国市场的深紫外光刻设备业务表现不及预期，这一点毋庸置疑；但我们确实在去年年末看到了该趋势的扭转，并预计这一反转态势将在 2026 年持续。
Operator
操作员
We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Chris Caso from Wolfe Research.
接下来，我们将进入下一个问题。本问题来自沃尔夫研究公司（Wolfe Research）的克里斯·卡索（Chris Caso）。
Christopher Caso
克里斯托弗·卡索
Wolfe Research, LLC
沃尔夫研究有限责任公司（Wolfe Research, LLC）
My question is with regard to the expected timing of deliveries within the backlog. And you mentioned a few things in your earlier comments, including customers recognizing that, that capacity may be tight, there is availability of customer clean room space. I'm not sure you wish to quantify how much of the backlog is expected to ship in '26. But would you say that the timing of those expected deliveries is stretching out as compared to what's happened over the past few quarters?
我的问题是关于积压订单中预计交付时间的情况。您在之前的发言中提到了几点，包括客户意识到产能可能趋紧，以及客户洁净室空间的可用性。我不确定您是否愿意量化 2026 年预计将交付的积压订单占比。但与过去几个季度相比，这些预计交付的时间节点是否正在延后？
R.J.M. Dassen
R.J.M. 达森
Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board
执行副总裁、首席财务官及管理委员会成员
Our expectation is, Chris, that the second half will be stronger than the first half, but I would say that that's a function of what I just said, which is, a, the availability of fast pace of our customers; and b, our continuous quarter-on-quarter ramp of our move rate. So as a result of that, we expect it, for the second half, to be stronger than the first half of this year. That's the way we currently model our shipments in discussion with the customers. But clearly, quite a bit of the order intake that we had in Q4. And clearly, part of the backlog is for '27. That is pretty clear. And it is '27, right? So the majority -- the lion's share of the orders that came in, in Q4, some of it is '26, but the lion's share we use for '27.
克里斯，我们的预期是下半年将强于上半年。但需要说明的是，这一预期取决于我刚才提到的两点：一是客户对设备交付速度的需求；二是我们自身出货速率持续逐季度提升。因此，我们预计今年下半年的业绩将优于上半年。目前，我们正是基于与客户的沟通，按此逻辑来规划和预测发货情况的。不过，显然，我们在第四季度所获得的订单中，有相当一部分属于 2027 年交付，这一点非常明确——确实是 2027 年。也就是说，第四季度新增订单的主体部分（即绝大部分）是面向 2027 年的，其中虽有少量属于 2026 年，但绝大多数都计入 2027 年。
Christopher Caso
克里斯托弗·卡索
Wolfe Research, LLC
沃尔夫研究有限责任公司（Wolfe Research, LLC）
My follow-up question is with regard to gross margins, and you spoke about that a bit, but perhaps you could clarify what are the headwinds and tailwinds with respect to gross margin for this year? I presume that China is one factor. But what are the factors that cause you to be on the upper end or lower end of gross margins as you go through the year?
我的后续问题是关于毛利率的。您此前已就此做过简要说明，不知能否进一步澄清：今年影响毛利率的主要压力因素（不利因素）和支撑因素（有利因素）分别有哪些？我推测中国业务可能是其中一个影响因素。那么，在全年范围内，哪些因素将推动毛利率处于指引区间的上限或下限？
R.J.M. Dassen
R.J.M. 达森
Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board
执行副总裁、首席财务官及管理委员会成员
I wouldn't say it's China per se. I would say it's immersion, right? So immersion tool is -- immersion is a significant contributor to the gross margin. As I mentioned before, we do expect the immersion sales this year to be below 2025, which is not the result of demand, but it's the result of supply constraints on the immersion side. So that is a bit of a drag.
我不会直接说这是中国自身的问题，而会说是浸没式光刻设备（immersion）的问题，对吧？浸没式光刻设备对毛利率有显著贡献。如我之前所提到的，我们预计今年浸没式设备的销售额将低于 2025 年水平；这并非源于需求疲软，而是受浸没式设备供应受限所致。因此，这在一定程度上拖累了整体毛利率。
Then you see quite a bit of dry sales. As we said, we also expect the dry sales, which was fairly low in 2025. We already saw that reverse itself in the last months of the year, and we see that reversal will continue into this year. But dry tools come with lower gross margin. So that's a drag on the gross margin.
此外，您会看到相当一部分干法光刻设备（dry）的销售。正如我们此前所述，2025 年干法设备的销售额本就处于较低水平；但我们在去年年底已观察到这一趋势出现逆转，且预计该逆转态势将持续至今年。然而，干法设备的毛利率较低，因此也会对整体毛利率形成拖累。
On the EUV side, there is a bit of a mix effect because we have 3600 in the year that we didn't have that much in 2025. And then if we have a bit more High NA, then of course, that also comes with a slightly depressing effect on the gross margin. So that's all the negatives.
在 EUV 方面，存在一定的产品结构影响：今年我们有 3600 型设备的出货，而 2025 年该型号出货量并不高；此外，若 High NA 设备出货量略有增加，也会对毛利率产生轻微的下行压力。以上即为所有负面影响因素。
In terms of all the positives, I would say, higher EUV numbers, right? So we're clearly looking at a significant step-up in the number of EUV tools this year. And that is margin accretive. So that's on the positive side. And as I mentioned, the big swing factor, as I look at it today is on installed base. And to the extent that the installed base will manifest itself in a positive way, high demand for upgrades, which at least theoretically, you could assume to be the case this year with all the appetite for capacity additions that our customers have, that should be helpful on the gross margin. So those are all the puts and takes, as I could see, it's for the gross margin this year, Chris.
至于正面因素，我认为主要是 EUV 设备销量提升，对吧？因此，我们显然预计今年 EUV 光刻机出货数量将实现显著增长，而这将有助于提升毛利率，属于积极因素。如我此前所提，当前影响毛利率的最大变量在于已安装基础（installed base）。若已安装基础能以积极方式体现——例如客户旺盛的产能扩充需求，理论上可推断今年对设备升级的需求也将保持高位——这将对毛利率起到支撑作用。以上便是我对今年毛利率各项影响因素的综合分析，Chris。
Operator
操作员
We are now going to proceed to our next question. And the questions come from the line of Tammy Qiu from Berenberg.
接下来我们将进入下一个提问环节。本环节问题来自 Berenberg 分析师 Tammy Qiu。
Tammy Qiu
Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG, Research Division
乔赫·贝伦贝格银行股份有限公司（Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG）研究部
So the first one is on Logic road map. So over the next few years, we do have A16, A14, A14C and A10. Can you confirm that for every single generation, are we still going to have EUV insertion of a couple of layers or some of the customers are really trying to minimize the incremental EUV layers, please?
第一个问题是关于逻辑芯片的路线图。未来几年，我们将陆续推出 A16、A14、A14C 和 A10 等制程节点。请问，是否每一代节点中，极紫外光刻（EUV）技术仍将在数个关键层中导入？抑或部分客户正努力尽可能减少新增的 EUV 光刻层数？
Christophe Fouquet
克里斯托夫·富凯（Christophe Fouquet）
President, CEO and Chair of the Board of Management
总裁、首席执行官兼管理委员会主席
Well, so let me try to answer that. So I think if you look at the midterm. So we talked about 2-nanometer. Indeed, we're going to go to A16, which is very similar to 2-nanometer, to be honest. This is not a big difference. I will skip that. We see then basically EUV layers increasing again at A14. As we discussed in the past, most probably 10% to 20%. We see that being even more true for A10, where the structure change could call for even more EUV layers. So that's a bit the view we have all the way to A10.
我来尝试回答这个问题。如果我们着眼于中期规划，比如 2 纳米节点，实际情况是：我们即将推进至 A16 节点，而 A16 与 2 纳米实际上非常接近，差别并不大，因此我在此略过不谈。随后，在 A14 节点上，EUV 光刻层数预计将再次增加；正如我们此前讨论过的，增幅可能在 10%至 20%之间。而在 A10 节点，由于器件结构可能发生更大变化，对 EUV 光刻层的需求甚至可能进一步提升。这就是我们目前对 A10 节点及之前各代节点的整体判断。
And in the discussion with our foundry customer, again, there's a lot of focus on that because this is key in enabling their future technology. So that's a bit where we -- what we see today on the foundries.
在与我们的晶圆代工厂客户沟通时，这一议题同样备受关注，因为 EUV 技术的持续导入正是支撑其未来工艺演进的关键所在。以上便是我们当前在代工厂客户方面所观察到的情况。
Tammy Qiu
谭美·邱
Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG, Research Division
乔赫·贝伦贝格银行股份有限公司（Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG）研究部
Okay. And I have a follow-up also on the capacity issue. So I remember that back in 2021, you were very clear about you would do 90 EUV tools and that is the capacity we need. Then of course, the unfortunate 2022 happened. So we took a pause of that. And it sounded like today, your capacity addition plan has been more cautious than you were previously. If there is any reason for that? Or just basically after 2022, it's better to take a cautious approach from a capacity perspective?
好的。我还想就产能问题进一步提问。我记得在 2021 年，贵公司曾非常明确地表示将交付 90 台极紫外光刻（EUV）设备，这正是当时我们所需的产能。但随后不幸的 2022 年发生了，因此我们暂停了这一计划。而今天听下来，贵公司当前的产能扩充计划似乎比此前更为审慎。请问这背后是否有特定原因？还是说，自 2022 年之后，从产能规划角度出发，采取更为审慎的态度本身已成为更优选择？
R.J.M. Dassen
R.J.M. 达森
Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board
执行副总裁、首席财务官及管理委员会成员
I think I tried to explain, but I guess I didn't completely succeed on that. So what I said is what we did in the earlier years of this decade is to put in what we call the long lead time items, which means that anything that takes more than, let's say, 12 to 18 months to get done, we did. Right? So we build additional factory. We put in equipment, et cetera, et cetera. So we build clean. So all of the things that take time, we did. So that's good news. So that gives you more flexibility.
我想我之前已尝试解释这一点，但可能并未完全讲清楚。我此前说的是：本世纪初的前几年，我们已提前部署了所谓“长周期物料”相关工作——即所有耗时超过约 12 至 18 个月才能完成的事项，我们都已着手推进。例如，我们新建了工厂、添置了设备等等，包括洁净室建设在内。所有耗时较长的环节，我们都已落实到位。这无疑是利好消息，也由此赋予了我们更大的灵活性。
But as I mentioned before, you cannot from one year to the other, move from a move rate -- an annual move rate of 44 to 80 in 1 year time. It simply doesn't work because you need to take in people, you need to hire people, you need to train those people, and you cannot double that in 1 year's time. That needs to be a gradual approach.
但正如我之前提到的，您无法在一年之内将年产能提升率从 44 直接提高到 80。这根本行不通，因为我们需要招聘人员、培训人员，而这些工作无法在一年内翻倍完成，必须采取循序渐进的方式。
So this is the process that we're in right now because we also took a decision back in 2022, 2023, we're not going to put in people for an output of 90 because that would make no sense. They would have nothing to do, and it would be very, very costly. So we're gradually moving our move rate up. So does our supply chain, same story there. They're also gradually quarter-on-quarter moving up their move rate. And in that way, we will very meaningfully increase our capacity over what we had in last year. So that's what we're doing.
目前我们正处在这一进程中。此外，我们在 2022 年和 2023 年就已作出决定：不会为 90 台的产出目标配备人员，因为那样毫无意义——员工将无事可做，且成本会变得极高。因此，我们正在逐步提升自身的产能提升率；我们的供应链亦是如此，同样在逐季度稳步提升其产能提升率。通过这种方式，我们将显著扩大产能，远超去年的水平。这正是我们当前所采取的策略。
So we have the structural big investments to get to [ 90, ] and now we're gradually moving our move rate up in order to move our integral capacity to cater to the demand. And we think that our increase in capacity goes nicely hand-in-hand with the completion of fabs by our customers, such that we will not be the limiting factor in them being able to increase their capacity.
因此，我们已进行了结构性的大额投资以实现[90]目标，目前正逐步提升产能爬坡速度，以扩大整体产能，从而满足市场需求。我们认为，自身产能的提升将与客户晶圆厂的建成进度完美协同，确保我们不会成为客户扩充产能的瓶颈。
Christophe Fouquet
克里斯托夫·富凯（Christophe Fouquet）
President, CEO and Chair of the Board of Management
总裁、首席执行官兼管理委员会主席
Yes, maybe to add to that to second for Roger on that. So I think what we said, back to 2026. So we said that the major factor, in fact, on tool delivery would be the execution of our customer because we have to realize a lot of decisions have been done in the last few months. And this also means that they are extremely active in putting capacity in place, et cetera, et cetera. And in 2026, as Roger said, we can nicely follow basically right now their whole ambition, which is good.
是的，我想就此再补充一点，以支持罗杰（Roger）刚才的观点。回顾 2026 年，正如我们此前所指出的，设备交付的主要制约因素实际上在于客户的执行能力，因为过去数月内，客户已作出大量关键决策。这也意味着他们正全力推进产能建设等各项工作。而正如罗杰所言，2026 年我们能够紧密跟进客户的整体扩产规划，这无疑是一个积极信号。
When it comes to beyond 2026, as you know, the lead time on our EUV machine is at least 12 months, which means that as we speak, we are capable to have that discussion with our customer looking at next year, basically. And as we do that, we can adjust basically our planning exactly in the way Roger mentioned it. But so far, if we look at the short, midterm, we are capable to nicely follow basically what our customers are asking for.
关于 2026 年之后的情况，众所周知，我们 EUV 光刻机的交货周期至少为 12 个月，这意味着目前我们已可与客户就明年的需求展开讨论。在此过程中，我们完全可以按照罗杰此前所提到的方式，灵活调整自身生产计划。截至目前，从短期至中期来看，我们完全有能力精准满足客户提出的需求。
So I think I sense a bit some concerns that we may be the bottleneck basically for our customer, this is not the case, certainly not this year. And again, for next year, we have plenty of time to continue to follow basically their demand. So I just want to make that clear. I think what Roger described is the process and the flexibility we have thanks to the investment we have made on our indeed 90 capability for EUV, 600 for Deep UV to follow basically very carefully what our customers are going to need in the next few quarters.
我认为大家可能略有些担忧——我们是否会成为客户发展的瓶颈？但实际情况并非如此，至少今年绝不会。而明年，我们仍有充足时间持续响应客户的实际需求。这一点我想明确强调。罗杰所描述的，正是我们依托在 EUV 领域 90 纳米制程能力及深紫外（DUV）领域 600 纳米制程能力上的投资所构建的流程体系与灵活响应机制，从而得以极为细致地预判并满足客户未来数个季度的具体需求。
Jim Kavanagh
吉姆·卡瓦纳（Jim Kavanagh）
Vice President of Investor Relations
投资者关系副总裁
Okay. Unfortunately, we have run out of time. But if you were unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact the ASML Investor Relations department with your question.
好的。非常遗憾，本次电话会议时间已到。若您未能接入本次会议，或仍有疑问，请随时联系 ASML 投资者关系部提出您的问题。
So now on behalf of ASML, I would like to thank you for joining the call with us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I would very much appreciate it. Thank you.
现在，我谨代表阿斯麦公司，感谢各位今天拨冗参加本次电话会议。 Operator（话务员），如您能正式结束本次会议，我们将不胜感激。谢谢！
Operator
操作员
[indiscernible] 2025 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results Conference Call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
[无法辨识] 2025 年第四季度及全年财务业绩电话会议。感谢您的参与。现在您可以挂断电话了。
