Blockbuster Earnings Bolster Stocks’ Record Run2026-08-09·931 words·中
Strong earnings reports from the U.S.’s largest companies are powering major indexes to new highs, easing some concerns that the recent rally is overly dependent on a handful of artificial-intelligence stocks.
美国大型企业发布的强劲财报推动各大指数屡创新高，缓解了部分人对于近期股市反弹过度依赖少数人工智能股票的担忧。
Among the more than 440 S&P 500 companies reporting second-quarter earnings so far, 86% have beaten analysts’ estimates, according to FactSet data.That puts the index on track for a seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. A run of upbeat reports from companies including Palantir, Caterpillar and Walt Disney this past week fueled a climb that carried stock indexes to their best weekly gains since April.
据 FactSet 数据显示，在迄今已公布第二季度财报的440多家标准普尔 500 指数成分股公司中，86% 的公司业绩超出了分析师的预期。这使得该指数有望连续第七个季度实现两位数的盈利增长。过去一周，包括 Palantir、卡特彼勒（Caterpillar）和华特迪士尼（Walt Disney）在内的多家公司发布了乐观的财报，推动股市上涨，使各大股指创下自4 月以来的最佳单周涨幅。
Investors still have plenty of volatility-fueling worries: the on-again, off-again war with Iran and new questions about how the Federal Reserve will fight inflation.Many note that earnings growth remains heavily concentrated in energy and AI stocks, particularly skyrocketing profits at memory companies supplying the AI build-out.
投资者仍有诸多引发市场波动的担忧因素：与伊朗时断时续的战争，以及关于美联储将如何应对通胀的新疑问。许多人指出，盈利增长仍高度集中在能源和人工智能股票上，尤其是为人工智能建设提供支持的存储芯片公司利润飙升。
But earnings season is reassuring many that a strong core of corporate profitability underpins the market’s gains.
但财报季让许多人坚信，企业强劲的盈利能力核心支撑着市场的涨势。
“These earnings are ridiculous,” said Phil Blancato, chief market strategist at Osaic.“These profit margins are incredible.”
奥赛克（Osaic）首席市场策略师菲尔·布兰卡托（Phil Blancato）表示：“这些收益高得离谱。” “这些利润率高得惊人。”
In the coming week, investors will hear from companies including Cisco and Applied Materials, and parse the latest reading of the consumer-price index.
下周，投资者将聆听思科（Cisco）和应用材料公司（Applied Materials）等企业的消息，并剖析最新的消费者物价指数数据。
Companies in the S&P 500 have posted a roughly 50% jump in blended earnings growth, according to FactSet data, the most since the stimulus-fueled pandemic recovery in 2021.For energy firms, that rises to more than 147%, while totaling around 117% and 92% for communication-services and consumer-discretionary sectors, respectively. For tech, it was 70%.
根据 FactSet 的数据，标准普尔500 指数成分股公司的综合盈利增长约 50%，为 2021 年受刺激政策推动的疫情复苏以来的最大增幅。能源公司的盈利增幅更是超过 147%，通信服务和非必需消费品行业的盈利增幅分别约为 117% 和 92%。科技行业的盈利增幅为 70%。
Skyrocketing oil prices from the Iran war are behind the big increase at energy companies .ExxonMobil’s profit more than doubled from a year earlier to the highest level since 2022, while Chevron reported its highest quarterly earnings on record. The refiners Marathon , Valero and Phillips 66 all posted their highest second-quarter earnings in four years.
伊朗战争导致油价飙升，这是能源公司业绩大幅增长的原因。埃克森美孚（ExxonMobil）的利润比去年同期增长了一倍多，达到2022年以来的最高水平，而雪佛龙（Chevron）公布了有记录以来最高的季度收益。炼油企业马拉松（Marathon）、瓦莱罗（Valero）和菲利普斯66（Phillips 66）都公布了四年来第二季度的最高收益。
Still, AI remains a primary driver of profits across the other leading sectors.Accelerating sales in Amazon.com’s cloud-computing business sent the stock up 15% in one session. Microsoft posted a record $450 billion one-day surge in market value after its earnings quelled concerns that investments on data centers, chips and more would outpace the company’s ability to generate cash. Its shares have gained around 29% since, ending a summer slump.
不过，人工智能仍然是其他主要行业利润的主要驱动力。亚马逊云计算业务的销售加速增长，使得该公司股价在一个交易日内上涨了15%。微软公布财报后，市值一日内飙升了创纪录的4500亿美元，此前人们担心该公司在数据中心、芯片等方面的投资会超过其现金生成能力，而财报打消了这些顾虑。自那以后，微软股价上涨了约29%，结束了夏季的低迷态势。
The results broadly eased worries about AI companies overspending relative to future profitability.Nvidia rose 12% this past week, its biggest weekly gain since May 2025.
总体而言，这些业绩缓解了人们对人工智能公司支出过度、影响未来盈利能力的担忧。过去一周，英伟达股价上涨了 12%，创下自 2025 年 5 月以来的最大单周涨幅。
The AI build-out is supercharging earnings in seemingly distant sectors, too.Demand for Caterpillar’s generators and construction machinery for data centers lifted the company’s total sales and revenue by 24%, helping power gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
人工智能的发展也在极大地推动着看似遥远的行业实现盈利增长。数据中心对卡特彼勒（Caterpillar）发电机和建筑机械的需求，使该公司的总销售额和收入增长了24%，助力道琼斯工业平均指数上涨。
And the gains from AI are masking more normal earnings elsewhere, some analysts said.Alphabet and Amazon alone account for about 71% of the increase in S&P 500 blended earnings since July. If excluded, the growth rate would fall from around 50% to 32%, according to FactSet analyst John Butters.
一些分析师表示，人工智能带来的收益正在掩盖其他领域较为常规的盈利情况。自7月以来，仅 Alphabet 和亚马逊两家公司就占到了标准普尔500指数综合收益增长的约71%。据 FactSet 分析师约翰·巴特斯称，如果剔除这两家公司，增长率将从约50%降至32%。
Accelerating sales in Amazon’s cloud-computing business boosted the stock 15% in one session.
While still high, the gap marks a sign that stocks remain vulnerable to shifting sentiment around the AI trade.A slump in chip stocks, for example, weighed on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite entering this reporting season, even as the Dow industrials climbed.
尽管差距仍然很大，但这一现象表明，股票在人工智能交易相关情绪波动面前依旧脆弱。例如，进入本财报季时，尽管道琼斯工业平均指数上涨，但芯片股的暴跌仍拖累了标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数。
Still, companies more tied to the so-called real economy have also reported robust earnings.Furniture company Wayfair’s U.S. sales were up 9% , their best performance in the post-Covid era, Chief Executive Niraj Shah told analysts. It was high-earning Americans that have fueled much of this growth, Shah said, as Wayfair’s luxury brands outperformed.
不过，与所谓实体经济关联更紧密的公司也公布了强劲的盈利数据。家具公司 Wayfair 首席执行官尼拉杰·沙阿（Niraj Shah）向分析师透露，该公司在美国的销售额增长了 9%，这是疫情后时代的最佳表现。沙阿表示，推动这一增长的主要是高收入的美国人，因为Wayfair 的奢侈品牌表现出色。
Disney revenues rose 7%, buoyed by the box-office performance of “Toy Story 5” and theme-park visitors.“We’re performing significantly better than our competition,” said Josh D’Amaro, Disney chief executive. “We’re achieving this even during a period where there’s a fair amount of macro uncertainty.”
受《玩具总动员 5》的票房表现和主题公园游客数量的推动，迪士尼的收入增长了 7%。迪士尼首席执行官乔希·达马罗表示：“我们的表现明显优于竞争对手。” “即使在宏观环境存在相当大不确定性的时期，我们也取得了这样的成绩。”
Walt Disney was among the companies with upbeat earnings reports.
Results have been good enough to signal better times ahead.Since the start of the third quarter, the bottom-up consensus estimate for S&P 500 companies’ earnings-per-share has climbed 1%, with upward revisions to most sectors, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.
业绩表现良好，预示着未来前景乐观。据高盛分析师称，自第三季度开始，市场对标准普尔500 指数成份股公司每股收益的自下而上的共识预测已攀升 1%，且多数行业的预测均被上调。
And rising earnings have helped ease some of the most-acute worries that the market rally has stretched valuations unsustainably.Companies in the S&P 500 traded this past week at around 28 times their past 12 months of earnings, according to FactSet data. That is down from a recent high of more than 29 times in May, but well above the index’s 10-year average price/earnings ratio of 22.5.
盈利的增长也缓解了一些人最为迫切的担忧，即市场反弹已使估值升至难以为继的水平。根据路孚特（FactSet）的数据，过去一周，标准普尔 500 指数成份股的往绩市盈率约为 28 倍。这一数字低于 5 月份超过29 倍的近期高点，但远高于该指数 22.5 倍的 10 年平均市盈率。
Some investors remain skeptical that earnings justify the rally broadening much further.To them, chip makers and data-center suppliers are inflating results across all sectors, while raising fresh concerns about spending and free cash flow.
一些投资者仍然怀疑，企业盈利是否足以支撑市场反弹进一步扩大。在他们看来，芯片制造商和数据中心供应商正在拉高所有行业的业绩，同时也引发了人们对支出和自由现金流的新担忧。
But some said the results suggest the gains could continue for some time.
但一些人表示，这些业绩表明涨势可能会持续一段时间。
“We could harp on the fact that the 10-year Treasury yields are above 4.5%,” said Dan Morgan, senior portfolio manager at Synovus Trust.“We could harp on concerns about inflation as it relates to oil. But it seems to me like most companies beat expectations. And it seems like we’re starting to say, ‘Well, yeah, those [jitters] are still here, but it looks like the market’s a little bit more resilient than what we might have anticipated in terms of profitability.’”
Synovus Trust 高级投资组合经理丹·摩根（Dan Morgan）表示：“我们可以反复强调 10 年期美国国债收益率高于 4.5% 这一事实。” “我们也可以反复提及与石油相关的通胀担忧。但在我看来，大多数公司的业绩都超出了预期。而且我们似乎开始意识到，‘没错，那些（市场波动带来的）不安情绪仍然存在，但从盈利能力来看，市场似乎比我们预期的更有韧性。’”
