全球&中国乳蛋白市场分析报告(下)Global & China Milk Protein Analysis (Part 3)

通过前两篇连载，我们已经层层递进，完成了政策逻辑、品类优势、市场数据全景的全面解读，看懂了乳蛋白赛道赛道景气度攀升的原因、整体市场规模、增速及发展潜力。

In the previous two installments, we conducted an in-depth analysis covering policy logic, category strengths and a full overview of market data, illustrating why the milk protein track has gained traction, as well as its market scale and growth momentum. 

但看懂风口只是第一步，读懂产业、看清短板、把握机遇才是核心。作为系列收官篇，本文将从全产业链视角，深度拆解中国乳蛋白行业生产短板、贸易壁垒、消费结构、周期规律与未来发展趋势，完整剖析国产替代的突围机遇与行业终局，为行业从业者、投资者提供完整的产业参考。

Understanding market trends is merely the first step. The core lies in dissecting the industry, identifying existing shortcomings and seizing opportunities. As the concluding part of this series, this article analyzes China’s milk protein sector from a full industrial chain perspective. It thoroughly examines domestic production bottlenecks, trade barriers, consumption structure, cyclical patterns and future development trends, and explores opportunities and the ultimate outlook for domestic substitution. This serves as a comprehensive industrial reference for practitioners and investors. 

一、国内乳蛋白发展机遇与调整

I. Development Opportunities & Market Adjustments for Domestic Milk Protein 

1.生产与周期波动

Production and Cyclical Fluctuations 

中国乳业的上游生产与原奶供应紧密相连，呈现出明显的周期性。自2021年9月至今，原奶行业处于第三轮周期的底部区间，奶价已下行4年，累计下跌31%。供给端，行业养殖场户已大面积亏损并逐步出清，2025年9月我国奶牛存栏量相比1月下降3.2%。饲料成本压力是主要因素之一，其占牛奶生产现金成本的60%-70%。展望未来，随着存栏去化深化、深加工产能释放及需求边际改善，预计2026年奶价有望实现企稳回升。原奶价格的稳定与回升，是乳蛋白原料成本与供应安全的基础。【详情：数据中心｜存栏量与产量】

The upstream production of China’s dairy industry is closely tied to raw milk supply, presenting distinct cyclical characteristics. Since September 2021, the raw milk sector has lingered at the bottom of its third business cycle. Milk prices have declined for four consecutive years, with a total drop of 31%. On the supply side, a large number of dairy farms have suffered sustained losses and gradually exited the market. China’s dairy cow inventory fell by 3.2% in September 2025 compared with January the same year. Feed costs constitute a major pressure, accounting for 60% to 70% of the cash cost of raw milk production. 【Data Center | Herd Size & Production】

2. 贸易格局与国产替代机遇

Trade Pattern and Opportunities for Domestic Substitution 

中国乳蛋白的进口依赖度高，但变化正在发生。一方面，国内规模化牧场发展及奶牛单产水平提升（2023年达9.4吨/头·年，已处世界前列），增强了国内奶源的自给能力。另一方面，国际奶价波动及贸易政策调整带来机遇。例如，对欧盟乳业反补贴等贸易措施，客观上为国产替代加速创造了有利环境。同时，国内大包粉相比进口已具备价格优势，行业内已开始尝试出口探索，这有助于平衡国内供需。在乳清蛋白等高端品类上，国产化替代的需求尤为迫切。

China remains heavily reliant on imported milk protein, yet profound changes are underway. On one hand, the expansion of large-scale dairy farms and rising per cow milk output — which reached 9.4 tons per cow annually in 2023, ranking among the world’s top levels — have boosted domestic raw milk self-sufficiency. On the other hand, volatile international milk prices and adjustments to trade policies have created new opportunities. For instance, trade measures including anti-subsidy actions against the EU dairy industry have objectively accelerated domestic substitution. 

Meanwhile, domestic bulk milk powder has gained a price advantage over imported products, and domestic players have started exploring export businesses to balance domestic supply and demand. Domestic substitution is particularly urgent for high-end products such as whey protein. 

数据来源：中国海关、农业部、乳界链测算

Data Sources: General Administration of Customs of China, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs、Estimates by DairyLink 

3. 从基础营养到功能精准化

Shift from Basic Nutrition to Targeted Functional Nutrition 

乳制品的消费需求正在发生深刻变革。基础白奶的渗透率已较高，增长动力转向结构升级与功能细分。乳蛋白，尤其是乳清蛋白，因其高生物价、易吸收和富含支链氨基酸等特点，正从专业运动营养领域快速迈向大众市场。它广泛应用于运动营养、代餐、婴配粉、老年营养等多个高价值食品领域。

Consumption demands for dairy products are undergoing profound changes. With high penetration of pure milk, growth is now driven by structural upgrading and functional segmentation. Boasting high nutritional value, easy digestibility and rich branched-chain amino acids, milk protein — especially whey protein — is rapidly expanding from professional sports nutrition to the mass market. It is widely applied in high-value food sectors including sports nutrition, meal replacements, infant formula and senior nutrition. 

运动营养赛道中，乳清蛋白是蛋白粉、即饮蛋白饮料的主导原料。在特殊人群营养方面，乳清蛋白中的α-乳白蛋白与母乳蛋白结构相似，易于消化吸收，是高端婴配粉和老年蛋白粉的核心成分。此外，在代餐和新兴植物基乳制品中，乳清蛋白能提供更好的饱腹感、更柔和的风味及更接近动物乳的质构，显著提升产品接受度。【详情：乳清蛋白:藏在奶源里的优质营养精华】

In the sports nutrition segment, whey protein is the dominant raw material for protein powder and ready-to-drink protein beverages. For vulnerable groups, alpha-lactalbumin in whey protein features a structure similar to human milk protein and is easy to absorb, making it a core ingredient for premium infant formula and senior protein supplements. In addition, whey protein delivers stronger satiety, milder flavor and texture closer to animal milk in meal replacements and emerging plant-based dairy products, greatly enhancing consumer acceptance. 【Whey Protein: Premium Nutrient Essence in Milk】

二、未来展望

II. Outlook 

展望未来，中国乳蛋白市场的发展将围绕技术突破、市场融合与精准营养三大主轴展开，构建一个更具韧性、创新力和价值深度的产业新生态。

Going forward, China’s milk protein market will evolve around three core directions: technological breakthroughs, industrial integration and targeted functional nutrition, fostering a more resilient, innovative and high-value industrial ecosystem. 

1. 深加工与高附加值转型

Deep Processing and Transition to High-value Products 

发展乳品深加工是消化原奶产能、提升产业附加值的关键路径。行业内领先企业正在积极布局奶酪、乳清蛋白、酪蛋白等深加工产线，从2025年下半年开始产能逐步释放。深加工不仅能缓解原奶周期性波动压力，更能直接生产高价值的乳蛋白原料，降低对进口产品的依赖。通过深加工，乳蛋白可以更精细地分离为酪蛋白、乳清蛋白及其功能组分（如乳铁蛋白），满足不同细分市场的精准需求。

Developing dairy deep processing is critical to digest excess raw milk capacity and lift industrial added value. Leading domestic enterprises have actively built production lines for processed dairy products including cheese, whey protein and casein, with new capacity gradually coming online since the second half of 2025. Deep processing not only eases cyclical swings in the raw milk sector, but also produces high-value milk protein materials and cuts reliance on imports. Through refined processing, milk protein can be separated into casein, whey protein and their functional components such as lactoferrin, to meet tailored demands of segmented markets. 

2. 新质蛋白与传统乳业的融合共生

Coexistence of Novel Protein and Traditional Dairy Industry 

以精密发酵为代表的合成生物技术，为乳蛋白生产提供了革命性的新路径，并有望与传统畜牧业形成互补共生的关系。新质蛋白赛道中的重组乳清蛋白技术已日趋成熟。例如，Perfect Day等企业通过酵母表达β-乳球蛋白，已成功推出冰淇淋、奶昔等商业化产品，并获得美国FDA GRAS认证。这种技术生产的不含动物成分的乳清蛋白，在可持续性和生产可控性上优势明显，未来有望应用于对动物福利、乳糖不耐或特定宗教饮食有要求的消费场景，与传统乳蛋白共同满足市场对风味、营养和伦理的多元化需求。

Synthetic biology represented by precision fermentation has revolutionized milk protein production, and is set to complement traditional animal husbandry. Technologies for recombinant whey protein, a typical novel protein, have matured rapidly. For example, companies like Perfect Day produce beta-lactoglobulin via yeast expression, and have launched commercial products such as ice cream and milkshakes, which have obtained GRAS certification from the FDA. Animal-free whey protein produced by this technology excels in sustainability and production stability. It is expected to cater to consumer groups with special requirements for animal welfare, lactose intolerance or religious dietary rules. Together with traditional milk protein, it will satisfy diversified market demands for flavor, nutrition and ethical standards. 

3. 功能精准化与消费场景拓展

Functional Specialization and Expanded Consumption Scenarios 

随着消费者健康意识的深化，乳蛋白的应用将从“泛营养补充”走向“功能精准化”。例如，乳铁蛋白凭借其免疫调节、抗炎、抗菌等多重功能，正从婴幼儿配方奶粉拓展至成人功能性食品、宠物营养、医美日化乃至医疗健康等多个高附加值场景。甜味蛋白、减盐蛋白等新型功能蛋白的开发，也将顺应低糖低盐的健康趋势，为乳制品及功能性食品的创新提供新原料。市场教育将成为关键，企业需要通过精准营销，将新质蛋白的科技优势、健康益处和可持续价值有效传递给消费者。

As consumers pay more attention to health, the application of milk protein is evolving from general nutritional supplementation to specialized functional use. For example, lactoferrin, with its immune-regulating, anti-inflammatory and antibacterial properties, has expanded from infant formula to high-value sectors including adult functional food, pet nutrition, medical cosmetology and healthcare. The development of innovative functional proteins such as sweet protein and low-sodium protein aligns with the global trend of low-sugar and low-salt diets, providing new raw materials for innovations in dairy and functional food. Market education will play a vital role. Enterprises need to conduct targeted marketing to communicate the technological strengths, health benefits and sustainability value of novel proteins to consumers. 

总结

Conclusion 

整体来看，全球乳蛋白市场稳步增长，亚太市场潜力突出；中国乳蛋白市场凭借政策红利与消费升级，增速领跑全球，但长期面临高端技术受限、进口依赖度高、产能利用率不足的行业痛点。随着国家国产化战略持续推进、头部企业技术突破、下游消费场景持续扩容，国内乳蛋白行业正式进入国产替代黄金周期。

Globally, the milk protein market maintains steady growth, with the Asia-Pacific region holding huge potential. Driven by policy dividends and consumption upgrading, China’s milk protein market outpaces the world in growth rate. Nevertheless, the industry still faces long-standing challenges including limitations in high-end technologies, heavy import reliance and underutilized production capacity. Thanks to the national strategy for domestic production, technological breakthroughs by leading enterprises and expanding downstream consumption scenarios, China’s milk protein industry has entered a golden era of domestic substitution. 

乳蛋白作为国家优质蛋白供给的核心品类，其国产化不仅是产业升级的必然趋势，更是保障国民营养安全、完善多元化食物供给体系的关键举措。未来，国产乳蛋白产业将实现从“进口依赖”到“自主可控”、从“低端代工”到“高端智造”的华丽蜕变。

As a core source of high-quality protein for the nation, domestic production of milk protein is not only an inevitable trend of industrial upgrading, but also a key measure to guarantee national nutritional security and improve the diversified food supply system. In the future, China’s milk protein industry will achieve a remarkable transformation: shifting from import reliance to self-sufficiency, and from low-end OEM manufacturing to high-end intelligent production. 

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