Why Analysts Say The Auto Industry Is Heading For Demographic Cliff
为什么分析师说汽车行业正在面临人口悬崖
CNBC, Jun 28, 2026
汽车行业的严峻前景 | CNBC news
2026-08-26 06:48
汽车行业的严峻前景 | CNBC news读（听）英语新闻不仅能锻炼英语技能，感受语言强大的表达能力和严谨性，更能获得严谨的知识和信息。虽然全球新闻媒体和大学的新闻专业在当今世界都面临挑战，国外媒体人的专业素养，综合能力和人格魅力还是强过国内同仁一大截的。信息时代最不缺的就是信息，我可以选择让我受益最大的内容，这样才对得起我宝贵的时间和注意力。 下面这则新闻分析汽车行业将要面临的严峻形势，尽管说的是阿美莉卡，但风头正盛的中国新能源车企，也需要清醒地认识，提前布局。
Narrator: In 2026 the auto industry in the US is expected to sell about a million and a half fewer units than it did when the industry hit record sales about a decade ago. According to some, this isn't a temporary slump; it's the beginning of a structural decline. Annual US car sales could fall to 13.7 million units by 2040. Demographics, technology and changing behavior all point to a permanent shift. 旁白：预计到2026年，美国汽车行业的销量将比十年前创下历史新高时减少约150万辆。一些人认为，这并非暂时的低迷，而是结构性衰退的开端。到2040年，美国汽车年销量可能降至1370万辆。人口结构、技术进步和消费者行为的改变都预示着这种永久性的转变。 Guest speaker: It is the perfect storm, isn't it? It starts with population declines. You're no longer a growth industry. You're a declining industry at a time when the technology is disrupting everything. 嘉宾：这简直是天时地利人和，不是吗？一切都始于人口下降。汽车行业不再是增长型行业，而是在技术颠覆一切的时代走向衰落。 Narrator: There are a few factors that together could result in about 2 million fewer U.S. new car sales by 2040. First population. US population growth has slowed and at this point depends entirely on immigration. If immigration policies tighten, the auto market is bound to stagnate or shrink. Second, consumer behavior about half of 16 year olds are not even getting driver's licenses. 旁白：有几个因素可能导致到2040年美国新车销量减少约200万辆。首先是人口。美国人口增长已经放缓，目前完全依赖移民。如果移民政策收紧，汽车市场势必会停滞不前甚至萎缩。其次，大约一半的16岁青少年甚至还没有拿到驾照。 Guest speaker: When I was 16, everybody was waiting for the day their birthday came around to run down to the DMV and get their license. That is definitely a factor and a trend that is impacting this. By age 25, most people do have a license, but they're confronted with vehicle prices that are too high, which keep them out of the car market. 嘉宾：我16岁的时候，每个人都盼着生日那天赶紧去车管所（DMV）考驾照。这绝对是一个影响因素，也是一个趋势。到了25岁，大多数人都有了驾照，但他们面临着过高的车价，这让他们对汽车市场望而却步。 Narrator: For Sam Fiorani of Autoforecast Solutions, the primary threat to vehicle volumes is price. 旁白：对于Autoforecast Solutions的Sam Fiorani来说，汽车销量的主要威胁是价格。 Guest speaker: We're still seeing groups of young people who enjoy driving and want a new car, but fewer or fewer can afford it. You need the younger people, the the less wealthy people of us, to start buying new vehicles. 嘉宾：我们仍然看到很多年轻人喜欢开车，想要买新车，但能负担得起的人越来越少。我们需要让年轻人，也就是我们当中那些经济条件不太好的人，开始购买新车。 Narrator: Third, technology auto industry forecaster Mark Gottfredson said that if autonomous vehicle tech improves enough to become mainstream, the share of the population with driver's licenses could drop by about 2 to 3% by 2040. Autonomous vehicles could also stand to reduce the number of cars per driver. Historically, that has been about 1.2. 旁白：第三，汽车行业预测专家马克·戈特弗雷德森表示，如果自动驾驶汽车技术发展到足以成为主流，到2040年，持有驾照的人口比例可能会下降约2%至3%。自动驾驶汽车还有望减少每位驾驶员拥有的汽车数量。历史上，这个数字约为1.2辆。 Guest speaker: We expect that, you know, in the next ten years or so to drop to about 1.1 vehicles per driver. 嘉宾：我们预计，在未来十年左右，这个数字将下降到每位驾驶员拥有约1.1辆车。 Narrator: Perhaps the most direct indicator is not the rate at which people buy cars. It's the rate at which they get rid of them. This is the one that people don't think about, but is actually the biggest factor in the number of new vehicles that are sold. In 2000, about 6% of all cars were deregistered in any given year. That's basically a vehicle that's no longer getting registered because it's getting scrapped or sent out of the country. And those cars needed to be replaced with new ones sooner or later. By early 2026, that fell to about 5%. Gottfredson estimates it could drop to 4.4 by 2040. Old cars are lasting longer, a record 12.8 years on the road in 2025. New cars are safer and more sophisticated, but that technology carries a price. 旁白：或许最直接的指标并非人们购买汽车的速度，而是他们报废汽车的速度。这一点人们往往忽略，但实际上却是影响新车销量的最大因素。2000年，每年约有6%的汽车被注销登记。这基本上是指那些不再登记的车辆，因为它们被报废或出口到国外。这些旧车迟早都需要更换。到 2026 年初，这一比例下降到约 5%。戈特弗雷德森估计，到 2040 年，这一比例可能会降至 4.4%。旧车的使用寿命越来越长，2025 年的平均使用年限达到了创纪录的 12.8 年。新车更安全、更先进，但这些技术也带来了更高的成本。 Guest speaker: Collision avoidance, Adas systems, all kinds of new technologies that weren't even dreamt of 15 years ago are now becoming standard on everything. So we're going to see those vehicles continue to be more expensive and more and more people trying to find ways to keep their car on the road longer. 嘉宾：碰撞避免系统、高级驾驶辅助系统 (ADAS) 以及各种 15 年前人们甚至无法想象的新技术，如今都已成为标配。因此，我们将看到这些车辆的价格持续上涨，越来越多的人想方设法延长车辆的使用寿命。 ...... Narrator: But the birth rate variable is locked in. We already know how many people have been born and how many people will be of vehicle driving age at age 16 in 16 years from now. And so we can say with quite a bit of certainty that when we get to 2040, we're going to see some decline in the U.S. that decline is even worse in places like Europe and in places like most of the countries in Asia now. 旁白：但出生率这一变量是固定的。我们已经知道有多少人出生，也知道 16 年后有多少人会达到 16 岁，具备驾驶年龄。因此我们可以相当肯定地说，到 2040 年，美国汽车销售将会出现一些衰退，而欧洲和亚洲大多数国家的情况会更加糟糕。