美墨加协定（USMCA）复审给企业与投资者带来不确定性，但该流程属于协定签署时既定机制，不代表协议将终止。

The review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) has generated uncertainty among businesses and investors. However, the process is part of a mechanism established when the agreement was signed and does not mean the treaty will be dissolved.

贸易互联服务公司总裁豪尔赫・A・托雷斯梳理出六大要点。

According to Jorge A. Torres, President of InterlinkTrade Services, these are the six main points.

要点 1：美墨加协定复审从签订之初就已规划

1. The review of the USMCA was planned from its inception

美墨加协定 2020 年 7 月 1 日生效，条约内置日落条款，要求生效满六年开展强制复审。本次复审于 2026 年 7 月 1 日启动，核心目标评估协定运行成效，商议是否续期 16 年至 2052 年。

The USMCA came into force on July 1, 2020 and since then contemplated a mandatory review six years later through the so-called Sunset Clause. This review begins on July 1, 2026, and aims to evaluate the functioning of the treaty and determine whether it will be extended for a new 16-year period, until 2052.

要点 2：协定不会在 2026 年到期终止

2. The treaty does not end in 2026

市场普遍存在误区，认为 2026 年协定失效。实际若三国无法在本次复审达成续期共识，现有条款持续生效，每年开展一轮复审，直至 2036 年或三方达成统一意见。墨西哥、加拿大已表态愿意续期；但美国不会未经谈判完善本土工业制造相关条款就自动续约。

One of the main misunderstandings is thinking that the USMCA ends this year. In reality, if the three countries do not reach an agreement to extend it during the 2026 review, the treaty will remain in force and reviews will be carried out every year until 2036 or until there is a consensus between Mexico, the United States and Canada. Mexico and Canada have formally expressed their willingness to extend the agreement. However, the United States is unlikely to accept automatic renewal without first negotiating revisions to strengthen its industrial and manufacturing base.

要点 3：原产地规则是谈判核心议题

3. Rules of origin will be the main topic of negotiation

美方提出最关键调整是提高车辆享受协定关税优惠所需满足的区域价值含量标准，提案包含两项要求：1. 区域价值含量由 75% 提升至 82%；2. 新增整车 50% 价值产自美国本土的硬性要求，现行规则无此条款。若提案落地，整车厂与零部件供应商需在北美本土生产更多零部件。

One of the most relevant changes proposed by the United States is to increase the regional content required for a vehicle to obtain the benefits of the USMCA. The proposal includes: increase regional content from 75% to 82%; incorporate a 50% US content requirement, a condition that does not currently exist. If approved, manufacturers and suppliers will have to produce a greater quantity of components within North America.

要点 4：232 条款关税持续形成贸易压力

4. Section 232 will continue to be a source of pressure

除协定复审外，企业仍需应对美国依据 232 条款加征的关税：不适用美墨加协定时，墨西哥汽车零部件关税 25%；欧盟、韩国、中国台湾竞品关税仅 15%。缩小该关税差距，是维持墨西哥制造业竞争力的核心诉求。

In addition to the treaty review, the industry continues to face US tariffs established under Section 232. At the moment: Mexico faces a 25% tariff on auto parts when the USMCA does not apply; competitors such as the European Union, South Korea and Taiwan face rates of 15%. Reducing this gap will be one of the priority issues for maintaining the competitiveness of Mexican manufacturing.

要点 5：墨西哥汽车产业增长韧性强劲

5. The Mexican automotive industry maintains solid growth

即便贸易环境存在不确定性，行业数据依旧向好。2026 年 1-3 月：汽车零部件产值 311.9 亿美元；出口同比增长 7.93%；75.4% 墨产零部件销往美国，两国制造一体化程度持续加深。

Despite the uncertain environment, the sector's indicators show strength. Between January and March 2026: auto parts production reached $31.19 billion; exports grew 7.93% annually; 75.4% of Mexican auto parts were destined for the United States. The data shows that manufacturing integration between the two countries continues to strengthen.

要点 6：企业投资布局重心将转变

6. Investment will change its focus

原产地规则若修订，全球企业投资策略随之调整，布局重心将从仓储、物流分销，转向整车制造、零部件生产、新建工厂、本土供应商产业链整合。墨西哥北部、得州南部工业走廊将成为共建协同产线的核心区域。

The potential update to the rules of origin would also modify the investment strategy of many companies. The emphasis would shift from solely focusing on logistics, warehousing, and distribution to focusing on: manufacturing; production of components; new industrial plants; regional integration of suppliers. In this context, industrial corridors such as northern Mexico and southern Texas become more relevant for implementing shared production schemes.

企业应对启示

What does all this mean for businesses?

企业无需纠结协定是否存续，应提前做好应对更严苛区域贸易规则的准备。强化北美本土零部件配套、培育区域供应商、重构供应链的企业，未来十年将充分享受美墨加协定红利。

Rather than wondering if the USMCA will continue, companies should prepare for a scenario in which regional trade rules will be stricter. Organizations that strengthen their regional content, develop suppliers in North America, and adapt their supply chains will be better positioned to reap the benefits of the treaty over the next decade.

#美墨加协定复审 #北美汽车贸易 #原产地规则 #近岸外包 #2026贸易政策#USMCAReview #NorthAmericaAutoTrade #RulesOfOrigin #Nearshoring #2026TradePolicy

点击此处阅读原文 Click here read the original content